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Yellowstone County, MT — Bars Saturation

How many bars exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 18 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Bars & taverns · Pubs & brewpubs (drinking-focused) · Cocktail & wine bars · Taprooms. Counted together because official statistics use one 722410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.87× the U.S. rate (between 1.87× and 2.84× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 14 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Yellowstone County bars — 187–284% of the U.S. rate

39 bars are counted in Yellowstone County — 1.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 187% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 14% between 2015 and 2023 (42 → 36). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 59044 (Laurel), 59101 (Billings), 59102 (Billings) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 59106 (Billings), 59102 (Billings), 59101 (Billings).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 48 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Yellowstone County sits at 187% of the U.S. rate for bars. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 187% and 284% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 59044 and 59101; the lowest measured density is in 59106 and 59102.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing bars and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Bars
39–67
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (14 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.87×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
48
2023 — $13M annual payroll
Residents
169,496
14 ZIPs with data
Workers
73,535
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
171,583
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.9%
+6,373 people
Net migration 2024
+674
international +61, domestic +613
Jobs located here
89,461
LODES 2022, +5.6% since 2019

Yellowstone County had an estimated 171,583 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.9% more than in 2020 (+6,373). In the latest year it gained 856 people: births minus deaths +175, international migration +61, domestic migration +613. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

89,461 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.6% since 2019), and 84,390 employed residents lived there (+3.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
59106 Billings
+17.2%
59105 Billings
+14.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
13
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$110K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more bars in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 14% since 2015

Number of bars in Yellowstone County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

42
2015
36
2018
36
2020
35
2021
38
2022
36
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
59044 Laurel
356%
59101 Billings
273%
59102 Billings
241%
59106 Billings
126%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
59106 Billings
126%
59102 Billings
241%
59101 Billings
273%
59044 Laurel
356%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few bars may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = bars per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersBars Per 10kIndexStatus
59044Laurel 12,3023,270 5 3.6 356% Very high density
59101Billings 42,25031,666 16 2.8 273% Very high density
59102Billings 47,97727,436 15 2.4 241% High density
59106Billings 21,4174,345 3 1.3 126% Above average
59002Acton 22114 0–2 — — Not published
59006Ballantine 58641 0–2 — — Not published
59015Broadview 39430 0–2 — — Not published
59024Custer 33534 0–2 — — Not published
59037Huntley 2,336262 0–2 — — Not published
59057Molt 78210 0–2 — — Not published
59064Pompeys Pillar 2116 0–2 — — Not published
59079Shepherd 3,940231 0–2 — — Not published
59088Worden 1,265171 0–2 — — Not published
59103Billings —884 0–2 — — Not published
59104Billings —232 0–2 — — Not published
59105Billings 35,4806,019 0–2 — — Not published
59107Billings —276 0–2 — — Not published
59108Billings —776 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Billings

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Billings retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Billings retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Billings retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Yellowstone County and bars

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722410 — drinking places (alcoholic beverages). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 48 establishments and $13M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.01 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.