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Nassau County, NY — Bars Saturation

How many bars exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 78 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Bars & taverns · Pubs & brewpubs (drinking-focused) · Cocktail & wine bars · Taprooms. Counted together because official statistics use one 722410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.61× the U.S. rate (between 0.61× and 1.17× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 57 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 48 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Nassau County bars — 61–117% of the U.S. rate

105 bars are counted in Nassau County — 0.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 61% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 24% between 2015 and 2023 (131 → 99). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11762 (Massapequa Park), 11735 (Farmingdale), 11001 (Floral Park) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11758 (Massapequa), 11040 (New Hyde Park), 11561 (Long Beach).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 135 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Nassau County sits at 61% of the U.S. rate for bars. 48 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 61% and 117% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11762 and 11735; the lowest measured density is in 11758 and 11040.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing bars and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Bars
105–219
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (57 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.61×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
135
2023 — $29M annual payroll
Residents
1,401,387
69 ZIPs with data
Workers
598,752
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,392,438
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+1,854 people
Net migration 2024
+3,230
international +7,655, domestic −4,425
Jobs located here
638,252
LODES 2022, −1.4% since 2019

Nassau County had an estimated 1,392,438 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+1,854). In the latest year it gained 6,386 people: births minus deaths +3,092, international migration +7,655, domestic migration −4,425. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

638,252 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.4% since 2019), and 692,699 employed residents lived there (−0.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11516 Cedarhurst
+23.6%
11501 Mineola
+10.3%
11550 Hempstead
+5.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11001 Floral Park
−9.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
65
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$3.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$47K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more bars in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 24% since 2015

Number of bars in Nassau County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

131
2015
119
2018
102
2020
101
2021
102
2022
99
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11762 Massapequa Park
204%
11735 Farmingdale
199%
11001 Floral Park
199%
11793 Wantagh
196%
11714 Bethpage
167%
11570 Rockville Centre
161%
11590 Westbury
150%
11501 Mineola
135%
11510 Baldwin
131%
11783 Seaford
128%
11756 Levittown
126%
11554 East Meadow
118%
11552 West Hempstead
109%
11580 Valley Stream
81%
11520 Freeport
77%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11758 Massapequa
66%
11040 New Hyde Park
70%
11561 Long Beach
72%
11801 Hicksville
73%
11550 Hempstead
73%
11710 Bellmore
75%
11520 Freeport
77%
11580 Valley Stream
81%
11552 West Hempstead
109%
11554 East Meadow
118%
11756 Levittown
126%
11783 Seaford
128%
11510 Baldwin
131%
11501 Mineola
135%
11590 Westbury
150%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few bars may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersBarsIndex
11042New Hyde Park Destination 14125,823 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = bars per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersBars Per 10kIndexStatus
11762Massapequa Park 22,4873,641 5 2.1 204% High density
11735Farmingdale 32,02835,370 10 2.0 199% High density
11001Floral Park 25,4938,936 6 2.0 199% High density
11793Wantagh 32,3496,145 7 2.0 196% High density
11714Bethpage 22,69514,021 5 1.7 167% High density
11570Rockville Centre 28,90816,228 6 1.6 161% High density
11590Westbury 47,59924,032 9 1.5 150% Above average
11501Mineola 21,64115,644 4 1.4 135% Above average
11510Baldwin 35,7014,368 5 1.3 131% Above average
11783Seaford 21,1274,340 3 1.3 128% Above average
11756Levittown 42,6658,788 6 1.3 126% Above average
11554East Meadow 36,82110,500 5 1.2 118% Above average
11552West Hempstead 25,1744,433 3 1.1 109% Above average
11580Valley Stream 43,09211,427 4 0.8 81% Below average
11520Freeport 44,91013,634 4 0.8 77% Below average
11710Bellmore 34,8349,704 3 0.8 75% Below average
11550Hempstead 60,96013,262 5 0.7 73% Below average
11801Hicksville 41,58525,734 4 0.7 73% Below average
11561Long Beach 38,7085,564 3 0.7 72% Below average
11040New Hyde Park 41,98828,601 4 0.7 70% Below average
11758Massapequa 54,37510,555 4 0.7 66% Below average
11002Floral Park —8 0–2 — — Not published
11003Elmont 45,1746,119 0–2 — — Not published
11010Franklin Square 25,6044,241 0–2 — — Not published
11020Great Neck 5,676704 0–2 — — Not published
11021Great Neck 19,78315,316 0–2 — — Not published
11022Great Neck —26 0–2 — — Not published
11023Great Neck 9,6301,844 0–2 — — Not published
11024Great Neck 9,155970 0–2 — — Not published
11030Manhasset 18,05124,267 0–2 — — Not published
11042New Hyde Park 14125,823 0–2 — — Not published
11050Port Washington 32,79415,110 0–2 — — Not published
11096Inwood 10,4283,707 0–2 — — Not published
11507Albertson 6,7361,750 0–2 — — Not published
11509Atlantic Beach 1,790497 0–2 — — Not published
11514Carle Place 4,5444,096 0–2 — — Not published
11516Cedarhurst 9,1123,466 0–2 — — Not published
11518East Rockaway 10,1491,450 0–2 — — Not published
11530Garden City 27,93935,781 0–2 — — Not published
11531Garden City —61 0–2 — — Not published
11542Glen Cove 28,9658,300 0–2 — — Not published
11545Glen Head 12,1724,723 0–2 — — Not published
11547Glenwood Landing 706171 0–2 — — Not published
11548Greenvale 2,2614,259 0–2 — — Not published
11549Hempstead 2,3593,099 0–2 — — Not published
11551Hempstead —8 0–2 — — Not published
11553Uniondale 27,87510,521 0–2 — — Not published
11555Uniondale —449 0–2 — — Not published
11556Uniondale 03,287 0–2 — — Not published
11557Hewlett 8,5043,736 0–2 — — Not published
11558Island Park 8,4542,504 0–2 — — Not published
11559Lawrence 8,8785,252 0–2 — — Not published
11560Locust Valley 7,6962,197 0–2 — — Not published
11563Lynbrook 22,8998,125 0–2 — — Not published
11565Malverne 9,009753 0–2 — — Not published
11566Merrick 34,7417,989 0–2 — — Not published
11568Old Westbury 4,1442,787 0–2 — — Not published
11569Point Lookout 945209 0–2 — — Not published
11571Rockville Centre —35 0–2 — — Not published
11572Oceanside 30,43611,638 0–2 — — Not published
11575Roosevelt 18,7051,973 0–2 — — Not published
11576Roslyn 12,2818,926 0–2 — — Not published
11577Roslyn Heights 13,0773,488 0–2 — — Not published
11579Sea Cliff 5,033891 0–2 — — Not published
11581Valley Stream 22,81811,004 0–2 — — Not published
11582Valley Stream —148 0–2 — — Not published
11596Williston Park 10,5162,229 0–2 — — Not published
11598Woodmere 13,5993,661 0–2 — — Not published
11709Bayville 6,744616 0–2 — — Not published
11732East Norwich 3,228688 0–2 — — Not published
11753Jericho 12,43512,846 0–2 — — Not published
11765Mill Neck 683312 0–2 — — Not published
11771Oyster Bay 10,9082,905 0–2 — — Not published
11791Syosset 25,52016,204 0–2 — — Not published
11797Woodbury 9,40213,628 0–2 — — Not published
11802Hicksville —168 0–2 — — Not published
11803Plainview 29,71321,821 0–2 — — Not published
11804Old Bethpage 4,8351,229 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Garden City

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Garden City retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Garden City retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Garden City retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Nassau County and bars

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722410 — drinking places (alcoholic beverages). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 135 establishments and $29M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.01 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.