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Kern County, CA — Car washes Saturation

How many car washes exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 56 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Car wash tunnels & bays · Self-serve & automatic washes · Detailing (wash-attached). Counted together because official statistics use one 811192 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.74× the U.S. rate (between 0.74× and 2.17× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 48 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 36 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Kern County car washes — 74–217% of the U.S. rate

37 car washes are counted in Kern County — 0.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 74% of the U.S. rate of 0.5.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 3% between 2015 and 2023 (29 → 28). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 93301 (Bakersfield), 93313 (Bakersfield), 93309 (Bakersfield) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 93312 (Bakersfield), 93215 (Delano), 93307 (Bakersfield).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 47 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Kern County sits at 74% of the U.S. rate for car washes. 36 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 74% and 217% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 93301 and 93313; the lowest measured density is in 93312 and 93215.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing car washes and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Car washes
37–133
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (48 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.5
per 10,000 present
County index
0.74×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
47
2023 — $16M annual payroll
Residents
915,763
44 ZIPs with data
Workers
218,146
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
922,529
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.8%
+16,405 people
Net migration 2024
+2,469
international +4,623, domestic −2,154
Jobs located here
301,425
LODES 2022, +2.3% since 2019

Kern County had an estimated 922,529 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.8% more than in 2020 (+16,405). In the latest year it gained 5,883 people: births minus deaths +3,358, international migration +4,623, domestic migration −2,154. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

301,425 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+2.3% since 2019), and 329,553 employed residents lived there (+6.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93314 Bakersfield
+22.2%
93311 Bakersfield
+22.1%
93263 Shafter
+8.2%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93561 Tehachapi
−10.9%
93203 Arvin
−8.6%
93280 Wasco
−2.6%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes only a broader group that also includes oil-change and other auto service shops, so a car-wash-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery.

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more car washes in that ZIP.

Market trend — down 3% since 2015

Number of car washes in Kern County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

29
2015
26
2018
27
2020
29
2021
29
2022
28
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93301 Bakersfield
248%
93313 Bakersfield
205%
93309 Bakersfield
191%
93308 Bakersfield
171%
93304 Bakersfield
112%
93307 Bakersfield
110%
93215 Delano
106%
93312 Bakersfield
95%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93312 Bakersfield
95%
93215 Delano
106%
93307 Bakersfield
110%
93304 Bakersfield
112%
93308 Bakersfield
171%
93309 Bakersfield
191%
93313 Bakersfield
205%
93301 Bakersfield
248%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few car washes may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCar washesIndex
93243Lebec Employment hub 8342,391 0–2 —
93524Edwards Destination 571,048 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = car washes per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCar washes Per 10kIndexStatus
93301Bakersfield 13,62022,131 3 1.2 248% High density
93313Bakersfield 61,84316,038 7 1.0 205% High density
93309Bakersfield 63,21723,343 7 0.9 191% High density
93308Bakersfield 55,07833,182 6 0.8 171% High density
93304Bakersfield 51,0377,850 3 0.5 112% Above average
93307Bakersfield 85,94514,643 5 0.5 110% Above average
93215Delano 54,5566,820 3 0.5 106% Above average
93312Bakersfield 58,38412,355 3 0.5 95% Below average
93203Arvin 20,7123,669 0–2 — — Not published
93205Bodfish 1,70828 0–2 — — Not published
93206Buttonwillow 1,898727 0–2 — — Not published
93216Delano —779 0–2 — — Not published
93220Edison 079 0–2 — — Not published
93222Pine Mountain Club 2,721171 0–2 — — Not published
93224Fellows 414354 0–2 — — Not published
93225Frazier Park 4,663279 0–2 — — Not published
93226Glennville 587 0–2 — — Not published
93238Kernville 887454 0–2 — — Not published
93240Lake Isabella 5,9811,062 0–2 — — Not published
93241Lamont 15,2501,095 0–2 — — Not published
93243Lebec 8342,391 0–2 — — Not published
93249Lost Hills 2,2431,736 0–2 — — Not published
93250Mc Farland 15,599891 0–2 — — Not published
93251Mc Kittrick 274363 0–2 — — Not published
93252Maricopa 1,295133 0–2 — — Not published
93263Shafter 24,02411,557 0–2 — — Not published
93268Taft 16,9632,553 0–2 — — Not published
93280Wasco 27,4072,668 0–2 — — Not published
93283Weldon 2,32659 0–2 — — Not published
93285Wofford Heights 2,920186 0–2 — — Not published
93303Bakersfield —234 0–2 — — Not published
93305Bakersfield 37,7144,702 0–2 — — Not published
93306Bakersfield 74,1168,665 0–2 — — Not published
93311Bakersfield 55,55512,659 0–2 — — Not published
93314Bakersfield 35,4075,013 0–2 — — Not published
93380Bakersfield —95 0–2 — — Not published
93384Bakersfield —8 0–2 — — Not published
93386Bakersfield —6 0–2 — — Not published
93387Bakersfield —57 0–2 — — Not published
93389Bakersfield —104 0–2 — — Not published
93390Bakersfield —45 0–2 — — Not published
93501Mojave 6,4353,742 0–2 — — Not published
93502Mojave —14 0–2 — — Not published
93504California City —12 0–2 — — Not published
93505California City 14,353740 0–2 — — Not published
93516Boron 2,8891,057 0–2 — — Not published
93518Caliente 1,20537 0–2 — — Not published
93523Edwards 3,502244 0–2 — — Not published
93524Edwards 571,048 0–2 — — Not published
93527Inyokern 1,831141 0–2 — — Not published
93531Keene 515402 0–2 — — Not published
93555Ridgecrest 33,8456,657 0–2 — — Not published
93556Ridgecrest —13 0–2 — — Not published
93560Rosamond 22,1191,295 0–2 — — Not published
93561Tehachapi 31,1754,957 0–2 — — Not published
93581Tehachapi 3,18842 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Bakersfield

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Bakersfield retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Bakersfield retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Bakersfield retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Kern County and car washes

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

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Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 811192 — car washes. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 47 establishments and $16M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.49 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.