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Honolulu County, HI — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 51 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.68× the U.S. rate (between 0.68× and 0.79× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 13 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Honolulu County day care — 68–79% of the U.S. rate

161 day care are counted in Honolulu County — 1.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 68% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (162 → 161).

Measured supply density is highest in 96701 (Aiea), 96821 (Honolulu), 96734 (Kailua) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 96786 (Wahiawa), 96815 (Honolulu), 96706 (Ewa Beach).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 171 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Honolulu County sits at 68% of the U.S. rate for day care. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 68% and 79% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 96701 and 96821; the lowest measured density is in 96786 and 96815.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
161–223
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.68×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
171
2023 — $81M annual payroll
Residents
1,000,573
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
327,883
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
998,747
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.3%
−13,660 people
Net migration 2024
+1,956
international +8,846, domestic −6,890
Jobs located here
426,159
LODES 2022, +6.3% since 2019

Honolulu County had an estimated 998,747 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.3% fewer than in 2020 (−13,660). In the latest year it gained 4,171 people: births minus deaths +2,303, international migration +8,846, domestic migration −6,890. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

426,159 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+6.3% since 2019), and 389,191 employed residents lived there (+3.6% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
96860 Jbphh
+112.7%
96857 Schofield Barracks
+42.9%
96814 Honolulu
+23.2%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
96818 Honolulu
−8.1%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
437
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$11.9M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$27K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 1% since 2015

Number of day care in Honolulu County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

162
2015
166
2018
159
2020
161
2021
157
2022
161
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
96701 Aiea
150%
96821 Honolulu
118%
96734 Kailua
116%
96816 Honolulu
114%
96744 Kaneohe
111%
96792 Waianae
96%
96813 Honolulu
94%
96817 Honolulu
79%
96818 Honolulu
77%
96825 Honolulu
75%
96826 Honolulu
74%
96789 Mililani
60%
96819 Honolulu
59%
96782 Pearl City
59%
96822 Honolulu
53%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
96786 Wahiawa
35%
96815 Honolulu
36%
96706 Ewa Beach
40%
96707 Kapolei
42%
96797 Waipahu
49%
96822 Honolulu
53%
96782 Pearl City
59%
96819 Honolulu
59%
96789 Mililani
60%
96826 Honolulu
74%
96825 Honolulu
75%
96818 Honolulu
77%
96817 Honolulu
79%
96813 Honolulu
94%
96792 Waianae
96%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
96701Aiea 39,20013,332 14 3.1 150% High density
96821Honolulu 20,0531,808 5 2.4 118% Above average
96734Kailua 50,6709,539 13 2.3 116% Above average
96816Honolulu 50,88310,696 13 2.3 114% Above average
96744Kaneohe 57,6208,686 14 2.3 111% Above average
96792Waianae 49,6183,702 10 1.9 96% Below average
96813Honolulu 26,76651,700 10 1.9 94% Below average
96817Honolulu 55,49225,917 11 1.6 79% Below average
96818Honolulu 54,8225,399 9 1.6 77% Below average
96825Honolulu 30,9133,590 5 1.5 75% Below average
96826Honolulu 29,1747,939 5 1.5 74% Below average
96789Mililani 54,2785,812 7 1.2 60% Below average
96819Honolulu 50,34548,486 9 1.2 59% Below average
96782Pearl City 37,4758,830 5 1.2 59% Below average
96822Honolulu 43,7475,600 5 1.1 53% Below average
96797Waipahu 72,43516,759 8 1.0 49% Far below average
96707Kapolei 48,80720,903 5 0.8 42% Far below average
96706Ewa Beach 83,6925,048 7 0.8 40% Far below average
96815Honolulu 27,53026,027 3 0.7 36% Far below average
96786Wahiawa 40,6583,448 3 0.7 35% Far below average
96709Kapolei —100 0–2 — — Not published
96712Haleiwa 8,2041,979 0–2 — — Not published
96717Hauula 4,580362 0–2 — — Not published
96730Kaaawa 1,47842 0–2 — — Not published
96731Kahuku 2,7821,414 0–2 — — Not published
96759Kunia 065 0–2 — — Not published
96762Laie 5,7103,438 0–2 — — Not published
96791Waialua 6,377651 0–2 — — Not published
96795Waimanalo 10,675985 0–2 — — Not published
96801Honolulu —127 0–2 — — Not published
96805Honolulu —355 0–2 — — Not published
96808Honolulu —143 0–2 — — Not published
96810Honolulu —74 0–2 — — Not published
96812Honolulu —169 0–2 — — Not published
96814Honolulu 24,68933,117 0–2 — — Not published
96820Honolulu 050 0–2 — — Not published
96823Honolulu —17 0–2 — — Not published
96824Honolulu —13 0–2 — — Not published
96828Honolulu —25 0–2 — — Not published
96830Honolulu —5 0–2 — — Not published
96837Honolulu —8 0–2 — — Not published
96839Honolulu —19 0–2 — — Not published
96850Honolulu 025 0–2 — — Not published
96853Jbphh 526451 0–2 — — Not published
96854Wheeler Army Airfield —115 0–2 — — Not published
96857Schofield Barracks 4,0391,282 0–2 — — Not published
96858Fort Shafter 323259 0–2 — — Not published
96859Tripler Army Medical Center 02,298 0–2 — — Not published
96860Jbphh 4,710457 0–2 — — Not published
96861Camp H M Smith —210 0–2 — — Not published
96863Mcbh Kaneohe Bay 2,302225 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Honolulu

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Honolulu retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Honolulu retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Honolulu retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Honolulu County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 171 establishments and $81M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.