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Lake County, IN — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 32 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.98× the U.S. rate (between 0.98× and 1.14× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 15 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Lake County day care — 98–114% of the U.S. rate

117 day care are counted in Lake County — 2.0 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 98% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 34% between 2015 and 2023 (82 → 110). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 46409 (Gary), 46407 (Gary), 46404 (Gary) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 46342 (Hobart), 46303 (Cedar Lake), 46324 (Hammond).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 126 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Lake County sits at 98% of the U.S. rate for day care. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 98% and 114% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 46409 and 46407; the lowest measured density is in 46342 and 46303.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
117–147
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (15 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.0
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.98×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
126
2023 — $29M annual payroll
Residents
504,725
27 ZIPs with data
Workers
171,014
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
502,955
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.8%
+3,992 people
Net migration 2024
+2,107
international +977, domestic +1,130
Jobs located here
187,144
LODES 2022, −2.0% since 2019

Lake County had an estimated 502,955 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.8% more than in 2020 (+3,992). In the latest year it gained 2,364 people: births minus deaths +278, international migration +977, domestic migration +1,130. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

187,144 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.0% since 2019), and 214,308 employed residents lived there (+0.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
46303 Cedar Lake
+19.7%
46373 Saint John
+17.2%
46307 Crown Point
+14.2%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
46407 Gary
−21.3%
46403 Gary
−18.7%
46312 East Chicago
−7.7%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
898
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$18.0M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$20K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 34% since 2015

Number of day care in Lake County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

82
2015
97
2018
96
2020
110
2021
107
2022
110
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
46409 Gary
398%
46407 Gary
279%
46404 Gary
212%
46403 Gary
164%
46311 Dyer
148%
46408 Gary
147%
46410 Merrillville
140%
46322 Highland
140%
46312 East Chicago
125%
46373 Saint John
119%
46323 Hammond
117%
46307 Crown Point
109%
46321 Munster
94%
46375 Schererville
82%
46324 Hammond
80%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
46342 Hobart
55%
46303 Cedar Lake
78%
46324 Hammond
80%
46375 Schererville
82%
46321 Munster
94%
46307 Crown Point
109%
46323 Hammond
117%
46373 Saint John
119%
46312 East Chicago
125%
46322 Highland
140%
46410 Merrillville
140%
46408 Gary
147%
46311 Dyer
148%
46403 Gary
164%
46404 Gary
212%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
46409Gary 7,184503 6 8.1 398% Very high density
46407Gary 8,577501 5 5.7 279% Very high density
46404Gary 15,4281,688 7 4.3 212% High density
46403Gary 10,9292,145 4 3.3 164% High density
46311Dyer 23,3216,464 8 3.0 148% Above average
46408Gary 15,7472,053 5 3.0 147% Above average
46410Merrillville 39,24327,127 15 2.8 140% Above average
46322Highland 23,6808,997 8 2.8 140% Above average
46312East Chicago 26,02211,080 8 2.5 125% Above average
46373Saint John 18,8433,891 5 2.4 119% Above average
46323Hammond 23,0474,329 6 2.4 117% Above average
46307Crown Point 71,67319,913 18 2.2 109% Above average
46321Munster 23,73315,460 6 1.9 94% Below average
46375Schererville 24,18812,018 5 1.7 82% Below average
46324Hammond 21,4096,549 4 1.6 80% Below average
46303Cedar Lake 17,6802,307 3 1.6 78% Below average
46342Hobart 32,2247,666 4 1.1 55% Below average
46308Crown Point —79 0–2 — — Not published
46319Griffith 17,8474,373 0–2 — — Not published
46320Hammond 14,3539,655 0–2 — — Not published
46325Hammond —83 0–2 — — Not published
46327Hammond 10,5972,651 0–2 — — Not published
46355Leroy —6 0–2 — — Not published
46356Lowell 19,7213,041 0–2 — — Not published
46376Schneider 31961 0–2 — — Not published
46377Shelby 4527 0–2 — — Not published
46394Whiting 11,8943,355 0–2 — — Not published
46401Gary —476 0–2 — — Not published
46402Gary 5,8369,036 0–2 — — Not published
46405Lake Station 12,1841,148 0–2 — — Not published
46406Gary 9,0014,976 0–2 — — Not published
46411Merrillville —41 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Merrillville

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Merrillville retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Merrillville retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Merrillville retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lake County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 126 establishments and $29M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.