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Essex County, MA — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 52 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.21× the U.S. rate (between 1.21× and 1.37× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 23 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 15 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Essex County day care — 121–137% of the U.S. rate

235 day care are counted in Essex County — 2.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 121% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 16% between 2015 and 2023 (182 → 212). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 01969 (Rowley), 01945 (Marblehead), 01923 (Danvers) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01832 (Haverhill), 01905 (Lynn), 01906 (Saugus).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 250 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Essex County sits at 121% of the U.S. rate for day care. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 121% and 137% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 01969 and 01945; the lowest measured density is in 01832 and 01905.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
235–281
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (23 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.21×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
250
2023 — $137M annual payroll
Residents
812,999
44 ZIPs with data
Workers
284,682
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
823,938
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.0%
+16,157 people
Net migration 2024
+6,430
international +9,656, domestic −3,226
Jobs located here
325,581
LODES 2022, −1.7% since 2019

Essex County had an estimated 823,938 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.0% more than in 2020 (+16,157). In the latest year it gained 7,741 people: births minus deaths +1,270, international migration +9,656, domestic migration −3,226. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

325,581 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.7% since 2019), and 399,495 employed residents lived there (−0.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01840 Lawrence
+52.9%
01904 Lynn
+21.4%
01905 Lynn
+14.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01984 Wenham
−5.9%
01908 Nahant
−5.1%
01982 South Hamilton
−4.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,716
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$76.3M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$44K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 16% since 2015

Number of day care in Essex County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

182
2015
206
2018
197
2020
187
2021
201
2022
212
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01969 Rowley
256%
01945 Marblehead
220%
01923 Danvers
219%
01833 Georgetown
210%
01904 Lynn
198%
01843 Lawrence
193%
01982 South Hamilton
181%
01810 Andover
177%
01915 Beverly
167%
01913 Amesbury
151%
01938 Ipswich
150%
01907 Swampscott
148%
01841 Lawrence
142%
01930 Gloucester
141%
01950 Newburyport
140%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01832 Haverhill
51%
01905 Lynn
64%
01906 Saugus
73%
01970 Salem
74%
01844 Methuen
89%
01940 Lynnfield
91%
01830 Haverhill
99%
01902 Lynn
104%
01960 Peabody
113%
01949 Middleton
123%
01845 North Andover
123%
01840 Lawrence
132%
01950 Newburyport
140%
01930 Gloucester
141%
01841 Lawrence
142%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
01901Lynn Employment hub 2,4195,113 3 297%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
01985West Newbury 4,591274 3 6.3 313% Very high density
01901Lynn 2,4195,113 3 6.0 297% Very high density
01969Rowley 6,2512,915 4 5.2 256% Very high density
01945Marblehead 20,4703,948 10 4.5 220% High density
01923Danvers 27,99124,899 18 4.5 219% High density
01833Georgetown 8,4321,924 4 4.3 210% High density
01904Lynn 21,0032,880 9 4.0 198% High density
01843Lawrence 27,44511,504 13 3.9 193% High density
01982South Hamilton 7,680930 3 3.7 181% High density
01810Andover 35,64834,501 19 3.6 177% High density
01915Beverly 41,99422,438 18 3.4 167% High density
01913Amesbury 17,4034,412 6 3.1 151% High density
01938Ipswich 13,9305,007 5 3.0 150% Above average
01907Swampscott 15,2772,837 5 3.0 148% Above average
01841Lawrence 52,7695,765 16 2.9 142% Above average
01930Gloucester 30,0759,614 10 2.9 141% Above average
01950Newburyport 18,65211,865 7 2.8 140% Above average
01840Lawrence 8,5225,421 3 2.7 132% Above average
01845North Andover 32,49414,851 10 2.5 123% Above average
01949Middleton 9,8164,428 3 2.5 123% Above average
01960Peabody 54,47421,323 15 2.3 113% Above average
01902Lynn 50,0663,881 11 2.1 104% Above average
01830Haverhill 26,5306,603 6 2.0 99% Below average
01940Lynnfield 13,2856,066 3 1.8 91% Below average
01844Methuen 53,42015,598 11 1.8 89% Below average
01970Salem 44,73816,559 8 1.5 74% Below average
01906Saugus 28,7739,556 5 1.5 73% Below average
01905Lynn 28,2215,225 4 1.3 64% Below average
01832Haverhill 26,3864,882 3 1.0 51% Below average
01831Haverhill —148 0–2 — — Not published
01834Groveland 6,7771,023 0–2 — — Not published
01835Haverhill 14,7825,503 0–2 — — Not published
01842Lawrence —211 0–2 — — Not published
01860Merrimac 6,748765 0–2 — — Not published
01885West Boxford —31 0–2 — — Not published
01903Lynn —31 0–2 — — Not published
01908Nahant 3,325320 0–2 — — Not published
01910Lynn —2,791 0–2 — — Not published
01921Boxford 8,250875 0–2 — — Not published
01922Byfield 3,450687 0–2 — — Not published
01929Essex 3,6211,175 0–2 — — Not published
01931Gloucester —71 0–2 — — Not published
01936Hamilton —65 0–2 — — Not published
01937Hathorne 10745 0–2 — — Not published
01944Manchester 5,4031,421 0–2 — — Not published
01951Newbury 3,327480 0–2 — — Not published
01952Salisbury 9,2812,855 0–2 — — Not published
01961Peabody —377 0–2 — — Not published
01965Prides Crossing 671413 0–2 — — Not published
01966Rockport 7,009563 0–2 — — Not published
01983Topsfield 6,5642,072 0–2 — — Not published
01984Wenham 4,9291,266 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Andover

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Andover retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Andover retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Andover retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Essex County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 250 establishments and $137M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.