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Collin County, TX — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 30 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.89× the U.S. rate (between 0.89× and 0.94× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 9 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 6 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Collin County day care — 89–94% of the U.S. rate

241 day care are counted in Collin County — 1.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 89% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 19% between 2015 and 2023 (178 → 212). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 75070 (Mckinney), 75013 (Allen), 75002 (Allen) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 75287 (Dallas), 75407 (Princeton), 75072 (Mckinney).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 282 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Collin County sits at 89% of the U.S. rate for day care. 6 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 89% and 94% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 75070 and 75013; the lowest measured density is in 75287 and 75407.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
241–259
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (9 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.89×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
282
2023 — $145M annual payroll
Residents
1,115,497
27 ZIPs with data
Workers
422,851
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,254,658
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+16.6%
+179,007 people
Net migration 2024
+39,663
international +20,237, domestic +19,426
Jobs located here
552,309
LODES 2022, +14.7% since 2019

Collin County had an estimated 1,254,658 residents on July 1, 2024 — 16.6% more than in 2020 (+179,007). In the latest year it gained 46,694 people: births minus deaths +7,142, international migration +20,237, domestic migration +19,426. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

552,309 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+14.7% since 2019), and 575,179 employed residents lived there (+13.5% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
75009 Celina
+143.2%
75173 Nevada
+141.9%
75454 Melissa
+119.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
75070 Mckinney
−38.6%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,446
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$26.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$18K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 19% since 2015

Number of day care in Collin County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

178
2015
198
2018
192
2020
206
2021
210
2022
212
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
75070 Mckinney
164%
75013 Allen
139%
75002 Allen
133%
75023 Plano
126%
75035 Frisco
119%
75075 Plano
115%
75094 Plano
112%
75078 Prosper
109%
75093 Plano
91%
75409 Anna
86%
75252 Dallas
84%
75071 Mckinney
73%
75098 Wylie
72%
75025 Plano
71%
75454 Melissa
60%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
75287 Dallas
26%
75407 Princeton
42%
75072 Mckinney
44%
75069 Mckinney
47%
75074 Plano
56%
75454 Melissa
60%
75025 Plano
71%
75098 Wylie
72%
75071 Mckinney
73%
75252 Dallas
84%
75409 Anna
86%
75093 Plano
91%
75078 Prosper
109%
75094 Plano
112%
75075 Plano
115%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
75024Plano Employment hub 45,652115,526 25 119%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
75070Mckinney 64,07827,990 26 3.3 164% High density
75013Allen 49,79620,674 17 2.8 139% Above average
75002Allen 75,05713,181 22 2.7 133% Above average
75023Plano 49,22910,825 14 2.6 126% Above average
75024Plano 45,652115,526 25 2.4 119% Above average
75035Frisco 89,68211,685 23 2.4 119% Above average
75075Plano 38,13526,491 12 2.3 115% Above average
75094Plano 24,2004,306 6 2.3 112% Above average
75078Prosper 53,01111,016 13 2.2 109% Above average
75093Plano 47,95454,983 14 1.9 91% Below average
75409Anna 27,1313,004 5 1.7 86% Below average
75252Dallas 28,61812,925 6 1.7 84% Below average
75071Mckinney 72,96416,795 12 1.5 73% Below average
75098Wylie 69,32511,468 11 1.5 72% Below average
75025Plano 53,2024,878 8 1.4 71% Below average
75454Melissa 22,9902,927 3 1.2 60% Below average
75074Plano 53,83131,893 8 1.1 56% Below average
75069Mckinney 40,03225,028 5 1.0 47% Far below average
75072Mckinney 55,0872,224 5 0.9 44% Far below average
75407Princeton 34,1712,283 3 0.8 42% Far below average
75287Dallas 53,9596,439 3 0.5 26% Far below average
75009Celina 34,2602,823 0–2 — — Not published
75026Plano —310 0–2 — — Not published
75086Plano —223 0–2 — — Not published
75097Weston —15 0–2 — — Not published
75164Josephine 885155 0–2 — — Not published
75166Lavon 6,989549 0–2 — — Not published
75173Nevada 10,664795 0–2 — — Not published
75424Blue Ridge 3,790227 0–2 — — Not published
75442Farmersville 10,8051,761 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Plano

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Plano retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Plano retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Plano retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Collin County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 282 establishments and $145M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.