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Tarrant County, TX — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 86 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.80× the U.S. rate (between 0.80× and 0.84× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 32 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 11 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Tarrant County day care — 80–84% of the U.S. rate

404 day care are counted in Tarrant County — 1.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 80% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 12% between 2015 and 2023 (333 → 374). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 76105 (Fort Worth), 76103 (Fort Worth), 76013 (Arlington) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 76106 (Fort Worth), 76011 (Arlington), 76001 (Arlington).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 427 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Tarrant County sits at 80% of the U.S. rate for day care. 11 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 80% and 84% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 76105 and 76103; the lowest measured density is in 76106 and 76011.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
404–468
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (32 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.80×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
427
2023 — $200M annual payroll
Residents
2,091,100
65 ZIPs with data
Workers
824,477
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
2,230,708
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+5.4%
+114,411 people
Net migration 2024
+19,503
international +22,666, domestic −3,163
Jobs located here
1,038,379
LODES 2022, +5.8% since 2019

Tarrant County had an estimated 2,230,708 residents on July 1, 2024 — 5.4% more than in 2020 (+114,411). In the latest year it gained 32,793 people: births minus deaths +13,170, international migration +22,666, domestic migration −3,163. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

1,038,379 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.8% since 2019), and 1,009,723 employed residents lived there (+4.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
76177 Fort Worth
+113.9%
76052 Haslet
+53.7%
76036 Crowley
+33.2%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
76051 Grapevine
−5.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
3,784
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$51.2M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$14K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 12% since 2015

Number of day care in Tarrant County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

333
2015
335
2018
333
2020
347
2021
364
2022
374
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
76105 Fort Worth
226%
76103 Fort Worth
198%
76013 Arlington
172%
76054 Hurst
171%
76092 Southlake
168%
76021 Bedford
167%
76120 Fort Worth
150%
76180 North Richland Hills
127%
76002 Arlington
122%
76182 North Richland Hills
122%
76017 Arlington
119%
76248 Keller
116%
76104 Fort Worth
114%
76109 Fort Worth
112%
76111 Fort Worth
110%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
76106 Fort Worth
34%
76011 Arlington
34%
76001 Arlington
35%
76117 Haltom City
38%
76110 Fort Worth
39%
76039 Euless
45%
76179 Fort Worth
46%
76114 Fort Worth
49%
76053 Hurst
52%
76040 Euless
54%
76051 Grapevine
55%
76132 Fort Worth
57%
76140 Fort Worth
59%
76177 Fort Worth
63%
76012 Arlington
63%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
76102Fort Worth Employment hub 11,89538,332 3 48%
76129Fort Worth Employment hub 1,6413,603 0–2 —
76155Fort Worth Employment hub 6,53321,169 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
76105Fort Worth 22,2283,495 11 4.6 226% High density
76103Fort Worth 15,9752,849 7 4.0 198% High density
76013Arlington 35,7158,847 14 3.5 172% High density
76054Hurst 11,7445,341 5 3.5 171% High density
76092Southlake 31,52036,588 17 3.4 168% High density
76021Bedford 35,35411,946 14 3.4 167% High density
76120Fort Worth 21,1023,632 7 3.1 150% High density
76180North Richland Hills 38,37116,055 12 2.6 127% Above average
76002Arlington 35,2651,926 9 2.5 122% Above average
76182North Richland Hills 30,2424,019 8 2.5 122% Above average
76017Arlington 47,07413,646 13 2.4 119% Above average
76248Keller 40,93611,601 11 2.4 116% Above average
76104Fort Worth 20,44336,773 9 2.3 114% Above average
76109Fort Worth 26,00618,490 8 2.3 112% Above average
76111Fort Worth 20,98911,896 6 2.2 110% Above average
76135Fort Worth 19,4457,068 5 2.2 107% Above average
76137Fort Worth 60,35222,727 14 2.0 96% Below average
76034Colleyville 26,1039,511 6 1.9 96% Below average
76244Keller 76,72812,777 16 1.9 95% Below average
76020Azle 34,6025,035 7 1.9 93% Below average
76112Fort Worth 44,5147,054 9 1.9 92% Below average
76119Fort Worth 52,97412,811 11 1.9 91% Below average
76010Arlington 54,97816,157 11 1.7 86% Below average
76116Fort Worth 49,85615,146 10 1.7 86% Below average
76018Arlington 26,83416,695 6 1.7 84% Below average
76014Arlington 32,8186,986 6 1.7 81% Below average
76063Mansfield 82,62531,455 16 1.6 80% Below average
76036Crowley 36,0444,274 6 1.6 77% Below average
76123Fort Worth 42,9573,176 7 1.6 77% Below average
76133Fort Worth 53,9586,698 9 1.6 77% Below average
76108Fort Worth 45,53726,301 9 1.5 76% Below average
76148Fort Worth 23,3675,562 4 1.5 75% Below average
76016Arlington 31,2804,724 5 1.5 73% Below average
76134Fort Worth 29,9497,973 5 1.5 73% Below average
76006Arlington 23,4468,020 4 1.5 72% Below average
76107Fort Worth 30,99426,912 6 1.3 67% Below average
76131Fort Worth 56,3227,065 8 1.3 66% Below average
76052Haslet 34,2496,918 5 1.3 65% Below average
76012Arlington 27,9916,142 4 1.3 63% Below average
76177Fort Worth 25,01243,241 6 1.3 63% Below average
76140Fort Worth 33,32116,957 5 1.2 59% Below average
76132Fort Worth 26,92715,665 4 1.2 57% Below average
76051Grapevine 50,61842,349 8 1.1 55% Below average
76040Euless 31,6779,683 4 1.1 54% Below average
76053Hurst 32,32311,167 4 1.1 52% Below average
76114Fort Worth 27,3575,521 3 1.0 49% Far below average
76102Fort Worth 11,89538,332 3 1.0 48% Far below average
76179Fort Worth 80,09012,820 8 0.9 46% Far below average
76039Euless 39,8557,001 4 0.9 45% Far below average
76110Fort Worth 33,4418,177 3 0.8 39% Far below average
76117Haltom City 32,95011,823 3 0.8 38% Far below average
76001Arlington 38,9135,926 3 0.7 35% Far below average
76011Arlington 22,75241,627 3 0.7 34% Far below average
76106Fort Worth 35,94616,014 3 0.7 34% Far below average
76003Arlington —47 0–2 — — Not published
76004Arlington —208 0–2 — — Not published
76005Arlington 7,102530 0–2 — — Not published
76007Arlington —14 0–2 — — Not published
76015Arlington 18,13512,133 0–2 — — Not published
76019Arlington —771 0–2 — — Not published
76022Bedford 13,7605,969 0–2 — — Not published
76060Kennedale 9,4442,330 0–2 — — Not published
76094Arlington —26 0–2 — — Not published
76095Bedford —55 0–2 — — Not published
76096Arlington —38 0–2 — — Not published
76099Grapevine —253 0–2 — — Not published
76101Fort Worth —563 0–2 — — Not published
76113Fort Worth —35 0–2 — — Not published
76115Fort Worth 19,6555,153 0–2 — — Not published
76118Fort Worth 17,99111,799 0–2 — — Not published
76121Fort Worth —54 0–2 — — Not published
76124Fort Worth —292 0–2 — — Not published
76126Fort Worth 27,6896,605 0–2 — — Not published
76127Naval Air Station Jrb 1,729212 0–2 — — Not published
76129Fort Worth 1,6413,603 0–2 — — Not published
76130Fort Worth —70 0–2 — — Not published
76136Fort Worth —142 0–2 — — Not published
76147Fort Worth —34 0–2 — — Not published
76155Fort Worth 6,53321,169 0–2 — — Not published
76161Fort Worth —44 0–2 — — Not published
76162Fort Worth —51 0–2 — — Not published
76164Fort Worth 13,4574,380 0–2 — — Not published
76181Fort Worth —42 0–2 — — Not published
76185Fort Worth —232 0–2 — — Not published
76192Fort Worth —9 0–2 — — Not published
76196Fort Worth —50 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Fort Worth

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Fort Worth retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Fort Worth retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Fort Worth retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Tarrant County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 427 establishments and $200M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.