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Travis County, TX — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 70 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.80× the U.S. rate (between 0.80× and 0.86× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 33 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Travis County day care — 80–86% of the U.S. rate

270 day care are counted in Travis County — 1.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 80% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (235 → 242).

Measured supply density is highest in 78652 (Manchaca), 78756 (Austin), 78722 (Austin) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 78754 (Austin), 78744 (Austin), 78728 (Austin).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 277 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Travis County sits at 80% of the U.S. rate for day care. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 80% and 86% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 78652 and 78756; the lowest measured density is in 78754 and 78744.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
270–336
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (33 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.80×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
277
2023 — $140M annual payroll
Residents
1,302,098
47 ZIPs with data
Workers
733,329
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,363,767
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+5.2%
+67,157 people
Net migration 2024
+6,018
international +19,522, domestic −13,504
Jobs located here
910,307
LODES 2022, +12.0% since 2019

Travis County had an estimated 1,363,767 residents on July 1, 2024 — 5.2% more than in 2020 (+67,157). In the latest year it gained 15,724 people: births minus deaths +9,730, international migration +19,522, domestic migration −13,504. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

910,307 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+12.0% since 2019), and 630,567 employed residents lived there (+4.6% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
78738 Austin
+94.0%
78653 Manor
+69.8%
78660 Pflugerville
+36.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
78741 Austin
−11.8%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,389
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$25.5M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$18K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 3% since 2015

Number of day care in Travis County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

235
2015
235
2018
231
2020
233
2021
243
2022
242
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78652 Manchaca
329%
78756 Austin
323%
78722 Austin
293%
78751 Austin
184%
78757 Austin
173%
78745 Austin
156%
78721 Austin
142%
78749 Austin
139%
78736 Austin
133%
78750 Austin
126%
78738 Austin
117%
78748 Austin
112%
78735 Austin
111%
78726 Austin
111%
78723 Austin
106%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78754 Austin
35%
78744 Austin
38%
78728 Austin
43%
78741 Austin
47%
78705 Austin
49%
78702 Austin
55%
78753 Austin
56%
78704 Austin
56%
78734 Austin
57%
78703 Austin
61%
78617 Del Valle
62%
78731 Austin
62%
78752 Austin
68%
78739 Austin
68%
78746 Austin
74%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
78701Austin Employment hub 11,82483,309 0–2 —
78719Austin Employment hub 1,7967,927 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
78652Manchaca 5,2871,419 4 6.7 329% Very high density
78756Austin 9,1979,051 9 6.6 323% Very high density
78722Austin 6,7673,271 5 6.0 293% Very high density
78751Austin 16,9619,012 8 3.7 184% High density
78757Austin 23,85614,816 11 3.5 173% High density
78745Austin 61,21922,800 23 3.2 156% High density
78721Austin 10,9975,704 4 2.9 142% Above average
78749Austin 34,5628,593 11 2.8 139% Above average
78736Austin 9,6512,847 3 2.7 133% Above average
78750Austin 29,27719,869 10 2.6 126% Above average
78738Austin 31,01913,677 9 2.4 117% Above average
78748Austin 55,63111,384 14 2.3 112% Above average
78735Austin 20,99620,142 7 2.3 111% Above average
78726Austin 14,5066,643 4 2.2 111% Above average
78723Austin 38,12916,680 10 2.2 106% Above average
78669Spicewood 12,5922,916 3 2.1 105% Above average
78653Manor 41,2914,564 9 2.1 102% Above average
78727Austin 29,95812,688 7 1.9 95% Below average
78732Austin 21,0872,593 4 1.8 88% Below average
78758Austin 49,61751,526 12 1.6 78% Below average
78660Pflugerville 124,83421,353 21 1.5 76% Below average
78759Austin 43,18255,784 11 1.5 76% Below average
78746Austin 28,25649,465 8 1.5 74% Below average
78739Austin 20,6591,932 3 1.4 68% Below average
78752Austin 23,31711,726 4 1.4 68% Below average
78731Austin 27,50724,680 5 1.3 62% Below average
78617Del Valle 30,7562,472 4 1.3 62% Below average
78703Austin 23,48317,204 4 1.2 61% Below average
78734Austin 22,1457,582 3 1.2 57% Below average
78704Austin 50,68838,652 8 1.1 56% Below average
78753Austin 56,92026,818 8 1.1 56% Below average
78702Austin 25,98519,534 4 1.1 55% Below average
78705Austin 33,23814,174 4 1.0 49% Far below average
78741Austin 45,95113,189 5 1.0 47% Far below average
78728Austin 26,77716,007 3 0.9 43% Far below average
78744Austin 50,98627,277 5 0.8 38% Far below average
78754Austin 32,69019,992 3 0.7 35% Far below average
73301Austin —908 0–2 — — Not published
78645Leander 15,2561,790 0–2 — — Not published
78691Pflugerville —206 0–2 — — Not published
78701Austin 11,82483,309 0–2 — — Not published
78708Austin —70 0–2 — — Not published
78709Austin —215 0–2 — — Not published
78710Austin —18 0–2 — — Not published
78711Austin —213 0–2 — — Not published
78712Austin 201263 0–2 — — Not published
78713Austin —55 0–2 — — Not published
78714Austin —160 0–2 — — Not published
78715Austin —309 0–2 — — Not published
78716Austin —713 0–2 — — Not published
78719Austin 1,7967,927 0–2 — — Not published
78720Austin —90 0–2 — — Not published
78724Austin 31,10310,177 0–2 — — Not published
78725Austin 10,7466,033 0–2 — — Not published
78730Austin 9,14210,241 0–2 — — Not published
78733Austin 9,0292,203 0–2 — — Not published
78742Austin 8471,529 0–2 — — Not published
78747Austin 22,1801,821 0–2 — — Not published
78755Austin —123 0–2 — — Not published
78760Austin —466 0–2 — — Not published
78761Austin —29 0–2 — — Not published
78762Austin —64 0–2 — — Not published
78763Austin —210 0–2 — — Not published
78764Austin —27 0–2 — — Not published
78765Austin —35 0–2 — — Not published
78766Austin —56 0–2 — — Not published
78767Austin —187 0–2 — — Not published
78768Austin —473 0–2 — — Not published
78772Austin —10 0–2 — — Not published
78778Austin —204 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Austin

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Austin retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Austin retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Austin retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Travis County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 277 establishments and $140M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.