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Williamson County, TX — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 26 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.16× the U.S. rate (between 1.16× and 1.23× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 13 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 6 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Williamson County day care — 116–123% of the U.S. rate

184 day care are counted in Williamson County — 2.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 116% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 46% between 2015 and 2023 (123 → 180). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 78664 (Round Rock), 78613 (Cedar Park), 78681 (Round Rock) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 78626 (Georgetown), 76574 (Taylor), 78717 (Austin).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 189 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Williamson County sits at 116% of the U.S. rate for day care. 6 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 116% and 123% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 78664 and 78613; the lowest measured density is in 78626 and 76574.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
184–210
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (13 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.16×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
189
2023 — $98M annual payroll
Residents
691,052
19 ZIPs with data
Workers
187,105
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
727,480
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+18.2%
+111,849 people
Net migration 2024
+21,643
international +6,663, domestic +14,980
Jobs located here
222,943
LODES 2022, +14.2% since 2019

Williamson County had an estimated 727,480 residents on July 1, 2024 — 18.2% more than in 2020 (+111,849). In the latest year it gained 25,840 people: births minus deaths +4,202, international migration +6,663, domestic migration +14,980. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

222,943 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+14.2% since 2019), and 326,759 employed residents lived there (+14.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
76537 Jarrell
+181.4%
78642 Liberty Hill
+113.8%
76527 Florence
+65.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
790
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$14.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$19K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 46% since 2015

Number of day care in Williamson County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

123
2015
152
2018
161
2020
161
2021
166
2022
180
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78664 Round Rock
174%
78613 Cedar Park
159%
78681 Round Rock
148%
78729 Austin
146%
78641 Leander
138%
78665 Round Rock
126%
76537 Jarrell
115%
78642 Liberty Hill
104%
78634 Hutto
97%
78628 Georgetown
70%
78717 Austin
68%
76574 Taylor
64%
78626 Georgetown
53%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78626 Georgetown
53%
76574 Taylor
64%
78717 Austin
68%
78628 Georgetown
70%
78634 Hutto
97%
78642 Liberty Hill
104%
76537 Jarrell
115%
78665 Round Rock
126%
78641 Leander
138%
78729 Austin
146%
78681 Round Rock
148%
78613 Cedar Park
159%
78664 Round Rock
174%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
78664Round Rock 62,06028,470 27 3.5 174% High density
78613Cedar Park 89,95630,305 34 3.2 159% High density
78681Round Rock 56,69119,609 20 3.0 148% Above average
78729Austin 30,46013,417 11 3.0 146% Above average
78641Leander 99,86514,116 30 2.8 138% Above average
78665Round Rock 66,17116,807 19 2.5 126% Above average
76537Jarrell 16,2721,774 4 2.3 115% Above average
78642Liberty Hill 26,4344,135 6 2.1 104% Above average
78634Hutto 46,4138,450 10 2.0 97% Below average
78628Georgetown 50,82210,422 8 1.4 70% Below average
78717Austin 37,26212,112 6 1.4 68% Below average
76574Taylor 20,2425,737 3 1.3 64% Below average
78626Georgetown 48,07216,460 6 1.1 53% Below average
76527Florence 4,9181,507 0–2 — — Not published
76530Granger 2,598186 0–2 — — Not published
76573Schwertner 089 0–2 — — Not published
76578Thrall 1,762113 0–2 — — Not published
78615Coupland 1,637154 0–2 — — Not published
78627Georgetown —590 0–2 — — Not published
78630Cedar Park —180 0–2 — — Not published
78633Georgetown 29,3093,288 0–2 — — Not published
78646Leander —152 0–2 — — Not published
78674Weir 10843 0–2 — — Not published
78680Round Rock —194 0–2 — — Not published
78682Round Rock —7,601 0–2 — — Not published
78683Round Rock —267 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Cedar Park

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Cedar Park retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Cedar Park retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Cedar Park retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Williamson County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 189 establishments and $98M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.