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Baldwin County, AL — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 25 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.13× the U.S. rate (between 1.13× and 1.61× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 19 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 14 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Baldwin County coffee shops — 113–161% of the U.S. rate

67 coffee shops are counted in Baldwin County — 2.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 113% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 110% between 2015 and 2023 (30 → 63). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 36561 (Orange Beach), 36542 (Gulf Shores), 36526 (Daphne) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 36527 (Daphne), 36535 (Foley), 36532 (Fairhope).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 114 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Baldwin County sits at 113% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 14 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 113% and 161% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 36561 and 36542; the lowest measured density is in 36527 and 36535.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
67–105
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (19 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.13×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
114
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
246,411
20 ZIPs with data
Workers
69,864
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
261,608
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+12.2%
+28,364 people
Net migration 2024
+7,645
international +1,075, domestic +6,570
Jobs located here
80,349
LODES 2022, +5.4% since 2019

Baldwin County had an estimated 261,608 residents on July 1, 2024 — 12.2% more than in 2020 (+28,364). In the latest year it gained 7,501 people: births minus deaths −150, international migration +1,075, domestic migration +6,570. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

80,349 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.4% since 2019), and 94,724 employed residents lived there (+8.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
36527 Daphne
+40.3%
36561 Orange Beach
+39.2%
36542 Gulf Shores
+34.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
18
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$92K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 110% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Baldwin County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

30
2015
41
2018
42
2020
51
2021
55
2022
63
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
36561 Orange Beach
401%
36542 Gulf Shores
254%
36526 Daphne
178%
36532 Fairhope
132%
36535 Foley
122%
36527 Daphne
77%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
36527 Daphne
77%
36535 Foley
122%
36532 Fairhope
132%
36526 Daphne
178%
36542 Gulf Shores
254%
36561 Orange Beach
401%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
36561Orange Beach 9,5287,053 11 8.4 401% Very high density
36542Gulf Shores 18,9067,128 12 5.3 254% Very high density
36526Daphne 36,48412,379 16 3.7 178% High density
36532Fairhope 38,10810,167 12 2.8 132% Above average
36535Foley 40,62812,082 12 2.6 122% Above average
36527Daphne 21,7656,122 4 1.6 77% Below average
36507Bay Minette 20,6413,902 0–2 — — Not published
36511Bon Secour 769179 0–2 — — Not published
36530Elberta 7,409840 0–2 — — Not published
36533Fairhope —192 0–2 — — Not published
36536Foley —344 0–2 — — Not published
36547Gulf Shores 0773 0–2 — — Not published
36549Lillian 5,622251 0–2 — — Not published
36551Loxley 12,4582,978 0–2 — — Not published
36555Magnolia Springs 1,099153 0–2 — — Not published
36559Montrose 22164 0–2 — — Not published
36562Perdido 1,63240 0–2 — — Not published
36564Point Clear 0849 0–2 — — Not published
36567Robertsdale 16,0954,175 0–2 — — Not published
36574Seminole 1,25499 0–2 — — Not published
36576Silverhill 4,492358 0–2 — — Not published
36577Spanish Fort —14 0–2 — — Not published
36578Stapleton 1,079177 0–2 — — Not published
36579Stockton 1,583116 0–2 — — Not published
36580Summerdale 6,6381,601 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Daphne

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Daphne retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Daphne retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Daphne retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Baldwin County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 114 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.