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Pima County, AZ — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 63 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.83× the U.S. rate (between 0.83× and 0.99× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 38 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 20 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Pima County coffee shops — 83–99% of the U.S. rate

217 coffee shops are counted in Pima County — 1.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 83% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 58% between 2015 and 2023 (118 → 187). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 85701 (Tucson), 85711 (Tucson), 85715 (Tucson) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 85706 (Tucson), 85746 (Tucson), 85745 (Tucson).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 221 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Pima County sits at 83% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 20 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 83% and 99% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 85701 and 85711; the lowest measured density is in 85706 and 85746.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
217–293
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (38 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
0.83×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
221
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,072,121
45 ZIPs with data
Workers
336,499
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,080,149
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.3%
+34,922 people
Net migration 2024
+12,394
international +8,351, domestic +4,043
Jobs located here
369,943
LODES 2022, +0.9% since 2019

Pima County had an estimated 1,080,149 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.3% more than in 2020 (+34,922). In the latest year it gained 11,570 people: births minus deaths −873, international migration +8,351, domestic migration +4,043. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

369,943 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.9% since 2019), and 398,246 employed residents lived there (+1.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85658 Marana
+39.8%
85641 Vail
+28.3%
85629 Sahuarita
+22.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85634 Sells
−23.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
53
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$3.8M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$71K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 58% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Pima County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

118
2015
149
2018
161
2020
170
2021
171
2022
187
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85701 Tucson
517%
85711 Tucson
227%
85715 Tucson
183%
85719 Tucson
175%
85705 Tucson
143%
85718 Tucson
138%
85743 Tucson
137%
85714 Tucson
130%
85741 Tucson
127%
85716 Tucson
125%
85704 Tucson
120%
85748 Tucson
112%
85737 Tucson
94%
85747 Tucson
91%
85712 Tucson
89%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85706 Tucson
28%
85746 Tucson
31%
85745 Tucson
34%
85730 Tucson
35%
85742 Tucson
57%
85710 Tucson
59%
85755 Tucson
68%
85750 Tucson
72%
85713 Tucson
76%
85641 Vail
80%
85712 Tucson
89%
85747 Tucson
91%
85737 Tucson
94%
85748 Tucson
112%
85704 Tucson
120%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
85723Tucson Destination 2443,287 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
85701Tucson 5,4987,408 10 10.9 517% Very high density
85711Tucson 42,55823,824 26 4.8 227% High density
85715Tucson 19,1988,358 9 3.8 183% High density
85719Tucson 51,83316,135 22 3.7 175% High density
85705Tucson 54,70030,065 21 3.0 143% Above average
85718Tucson 28,12512,865 10 2.9 138% Above average
85743Tucson 31,3006,912 10 2.9 137% Above average
85714Tucson 14,49814,969 6 2.7 130% Above average
85741Tucson 33,67915,130 11 2.7 127% Above average
85716Tucson 32,9769,840 10 2.6 125% Above average
85704Tucson 35,21016,716 11 2.5 120% Above average
85748Tucson 20,1032,376 5 2.3 112% Above average
85737Tucson 22,7855,110 5 2.0 94% Below average
85747Tucson 27,7536,918 6 1.9 91% Below average
85712Tucson 31,57122,712 8 1.9 89% Below average
85641Vail 34,7521,412 6 1.7 80% Below average
85713Tucson 46,43919,275 9 1.6 76% Below average
85750Tucson 24,8863,162 4 1.5 72% Below average
85755Tucson 18,5605,103 3 1.4 68% Below average
85710Tucson 56,12517,797 8 1.2 59% Below average
85742Tucson 31,6133,130 4 1.2 57% Below average
85730Tucson 39,3993,478 3 0.7 35% Far below average
85745Tucson 36,9999,686 3 0.7 34% Far below average
85746Tucson 42,8355,877 3 0.7 31% Far below average
85706Tucson 54,23626,512 4 0.6 28% Far below average
85321Ajo 3,555406 0–2 — — Not published
85341Lukeville 3724 0–2 — — Not published
85601Arivaca 26880 0–2 — — Not published
85614Green Valley 25,3817,321 0–2 — — Not published
85619Mount Lemmon 073 0–2 — — Not published
85622Green Valley 6,518699 0–2 — — Not published
85629Sahuarita 31,6683,364 0–2 — — Not published
85634Sells 5,038460 0–2 — — Not published
85645Amado 1,24994 0–2 — — Not published
85653Marana 23,5742,469 0–2 — — Not published
85654Rillito 0343 0–2 — — Not published
85658Marana 16,0511,782 0–2 — — Not published
85702Tucson —43 0–2 — — Not published
85707Tucson 581679 0–2 — — Not published
85708Tucson 4,31246 0–2 — — Not published
85709Tucson 094 0–2 — — Not published
85717Tucson —51 0–2 — — Not published
85721Tucson 099 0–2 — — Not published
85723Tucson 2443,287 0–2 — — Not published
85724Tucson 03,438 0–2 — — Not published
85726Tucson 0109 0–2 — — Not published
85728Tucson —29 0–2 — — Not published
85731Tucson —743 0–2 — — Not published
85732Tucson —122 0–2 — — Not published
85733Tucson —16 0–2 — — Not published
85734Tucson 4,79778 0–2 — — Not published
85735Tucson 10,718349 0–2 — — Not published
85736Tucson 4,219155 0–2 — — Not published
85738Catalina —59 0–2 — — Not published
85739Tucson 18,4782,402 0–2 — — Not published
85740Tucson —57 0–2 — — Not published
85744Tucson —597 0–2 — — Not published
85749Tucson 18,8432,361 0–2 — — Not published
85751Tucson —144 0–2 — — Not published
85752Tucson —42 0–2 — — Not published
85754Tucson —107 0–2 — — Not published
85756Tucson 37,70015,263 0–2 — — Not published
85757Tucson 21,259410 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Tucson

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Tucson retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Tucson retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Tucson retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Pima County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 221 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.