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Lancaster County, NE — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 42 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.05× the U.S. rate (between 1.05× and 1.64× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 25 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Lancaster County coffee shops — 105–164% of the U.S. rate

89 coffee shops are counted in Lancaster County — 2.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 105% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 38% between 2015 and 2023 (60 → 83). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 68510 (Lincoln), 68508 (Lincoln), 68516 (Lincoln) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 68521 (Lincoln), 68504 (Lincoln), 68506 (Lincoln).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 112 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Lancaster County sits at 105% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 25 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 105% and 164% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 68510 and 68508; the lowest measured density is in 68521 and 68504.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
89–151
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.05×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
112
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
325,418
36 ZIPs with data
Workers
153,480
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
332,857
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.0%
+9,686 people
Net migration 2024
+2,999
international +3,080, domestic −81
Jobs located here
175,699
LODES 2022, −1.1% since 2019

Lancaster County had an estimated 332,857 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.0% more than in 2020 (+9,686). In the latest year it gained 4,063 people: births minus deaths +1,051, international migration +3,080, domestic migration −81. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

175,699 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.1% since 2019), and 156,306 employed residents lived there (+0.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
68505 Lincoln
+18.1%
68462 Waverly
+11.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
17
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$777K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$46K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 38% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Lancaster County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

60
2015
57
2018
64
2020
61
2021
72
2022
83
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
68510 Lincoln
254%
68508 Lincoln
253%
68516 Lincoln
164%
68512 Lincoln
158%
68528 Lincoln
155%
68526 Lincoln
150%
68505 Lincoln
115%
68502 Lincoln
97%
68506 Lincoln
92%
68504 Lincoln
85%
68521 Lincoln
43%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
68521 Lincoln
43%
68504 Lincoln
85%
68506 Lincoln
92%
68502 Lincoln
97%
68505 Lincoln
115%
68526 Lincoln
150%
68528 Lincoln
155%
68512 Lincoln
158%
68516 Lincoln
164%
68508 Lincoln
253%
68510 Lincoln
254%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
68510Lincoln 19,39117,458 15 5.3 254% Very high density
68508Lincoln 18,16323,777 16 5.3 253% Very high density
68516Lincoln 48,90317,957 20 3.5 164% High density
68512Lincoln 13,8028,411 6 3.3 158% High density
68528Lincoln 7,2733,878 3 3.3 155% High density
68526Lincoln 7,9443,098 3 3.2 150% High density
68505Lincoln 18,8343,758 5 2.4 115% Above average
68502Lincoln 25,8467,003 6 2.0 97% Below average
68506Lincoln 27,53117,438 7 1.9 92% Below average
68504Lincoln 17,27810,054 4 1.8 85% Below average
68521Lincoln 37,05015,226 4 0.9 43% Far below average
68317Bennet 1,984330 0–2 — — Not published
68336Davey 49642 0–2 — — Not published
68339Denton 1,154237 0–2 — — Not published
68358Firth 1,701226 0–2 — — Not published
68368Hallam 477136 0–2 — — Not published
68372Hickman 4,135320 0–2 — — Not published
68402Malcolm 1,45994 0–2 — — Not published
68404Martell 1,039416 0–2 — — Not published
68419Panama 24212 0–2 — — Not published
68428Raymond 1,332221 0–2 — — Not published
68430Roca 1,989491 0–2 — — Not published
68438Sprague 17622 0–2 — — Not published
68461Walton 503146 0–2 — — Not published
68462Waverly 4,9282,439 0–2 — — Not published
68501Lincoln —2,740 0–2 — — Not published
68503Lincoln 15,8673,156 0–2 — — Not published
68507Lincoln 16,0295,693 0–2 — — Not published
68509Lincoln —496 0–2 — — Not published
68514Lincoln 420291 0–2 — — Not published
68517Lincoln 415665 0–2 — — Not published
68520Lincoln 2,7621,168 0–2 — — Not published
68522Lincoln 14,8362,926 0–2 — — Not published
68523Lincoln 2,031359 0–2 — — Not published
68524Lincoln 6,1395,689 0–2 — — Not published
68527Lincoln 2,318260 0–2 — — Not published
68529Lincoln —70 0–2 — — Not published
68531Lincoln 18633 0–2 — — Not published
68532Lincoln 78550 0–2 — — Not published
68542Lincoln —103 0–2 — — Not published
68583Lincoln —15 0–2 — — Not published
68588Lincoln 0175 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lincoln

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lincoln retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lincoln retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lincoln retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lancaster County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 112 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.