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Nassau County, NY — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 78 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.59× the U.S. rate (between 1.59× and 1.67× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 25 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 16 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Nassau County coffee shops — 159–167% of the U.S. rate

567 coffee shops are counted in Nassau County — 3.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 159% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 33% between 2015 and 2023 (414 → 550). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11579 (Sea Cliff), 11735 (Farmingdale), 11753 (Jericho) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11001 (Floral Park), 11003 (Elmont), 11550 (Hempstead).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 613 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Nassau County sits at 159% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 16 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 159% and 167% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11579 and 11735; the lowest measured density is in 11001 and 11003.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
567–617
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (25 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.59×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
613
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,401,387
69 ZIPs with data
Workers
598,752
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,392,438
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+1,854 people
Net migration 2024
+3,230
international +7,655, domestic −4,425
Jobs located here
638,252
LODES 2022, −1.4% since 2019

Nassau County had an estimated 1,392,438 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+1,854). In the latest year it gained 6,386 people: births minus deaths +3,092, international migration +7,655, domestic migration −4,425. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

638,252 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.4% since 2019), and 692,699 employed residents lived there (−0.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11516 Cedarhurst
+23.6%
11501 Mineola
+10.3%
11550 Hempstead
+5.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11001 Floral Park
−9.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
73
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$3.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$43K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 33% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Nassau County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

414
2015
444
2018
455
2020
467
2021
509
2022
550
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11579 Sea Cliff
347%
11735 Farmingdale
316%
11753 Jericho
303%
11559 Lawrence
289%
11563 Lynbrook
282%
11021 Great Neck
277%
11557 Hewlett
275%
11010 Franklin Square
274%
11530 Garden City
270%
11565 Malverne
253%
11558 Island Park
245%
11561 Long Beach
241%
11762 Massapequa Park
235%
11710 Bellmore
228%
11791 Syosset
226%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11001 Floral Park
48%
11003 Elmont
49%
11550 Hempstead
56%
11520 Freeport
74%
11590 Westbury
88%
11030 Manhasset
95%
11581 Valley Stream
101%
11554 East Meadow
113%
11576 Roslyn
114%
11580 Valley Stream
117%
11797 Woodbury
117%
11758 Massapequa
120%
11756 Levittown
121%
11545 Glen Head
131%
11793 Wantagh
134%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
11042New Hyde Park Destination 14125,823 3 109%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
11514Carle Place 4,5444,096 7 10.6 505% Very high density
11579Sea Cliff 5,033891 4 7.3 347% Very high density
11548Greenvale 2,2614,259 3 6.8 325% Very high density
11735Farmingdale 32,02835,370 33 6.6 316% Very high density
11753Jericho 12,43512,846 12 6.4 303% Very high density
11559Lawrence 8,8785,252 7 6.1 289% Very high density
11563Lynbrook 22,8998,125 16 5.9 282% Very high density
11021Great Neck 19,78315,316 16 5.8 277% Very high density
11557Hewlett 8,5043,736 6 5.8 275% Very high density
11010Franklin Square 25,6044,241 16 5.8 274% Very high density
11530Garden City 27,93935,781 26 5.7 270% Very high density
11565Malverne 9,009753 5 5.3 253% Very high density
11558Island Park 8,4542,504 5 5.2 245% High density
11561Long Beach 38,7085,564 21 5.1 241% High density
11762Massapequa Park 22,4873,641 12 4.9 235% High density
11710Bellmore 34,8349,704 19 4.8 228% High density
11791Syosset 25,52016,204 16 4.8 226% High density
11714Bethpage 22,69514,021 14 4.7 224% High density
11803Plainview 29,71321,821 19 4.7 222% High density
11566Merrick 34,7417,989 18 4.6 221% High density
11518East Rockaway 10,1491,450 5 4.6 219% High density
11050Port Washington 32,79415,110 18 4.5 212% High density
11572Oceanside 30,43611,638 16 4.4 210% High density
11596Williston Park 10,5162,229 5 4.3 204% High density
11542Glen Cove 28,9658,300 14 4.2 201% High density
11570Rockville Centre 28,90816,228 15 4.1 193% High density
11507Albertson 6,7361,750 3 3.9 187% High density
11040New Hyde Park 41,98828,601 22 3.9 186% High density
11501Mineola 21,64115,644 11 3.7 178% High density
11516Cedarhurst 9,1123,466 4 3.7 175% High density
11577Roslyn Heights 13,0773,488 5 3.4 160% High density
11552West Hempstead 25,1744,433 9 3.3 156% High density
11598Woodmere 13,5993,661 5 3.2 154% High density
11771Oyster Bay 10,9082,905 4 3.2 154% High density
11801Hicksville 41,58525,734 17 3.1 148% Above average
11783Seaford 21,1274,340 7 3.0 143% Above average
11510Baldwin 35,7014,368 11 2.9 138% Above average
11793Wantagh 32,3496,145 10 2.8 134% Above average
11545Glen Head 12,1724,723 4 2.8 131% Above average
11756Levittown 42,6658,788 12 2.5 121% Above average
11758Massapequa 54,37510,555 15 2.5 120% Above average
11797Woodbury 9,40213,628 4 2.5 117% Above average
11580Valley Stream 43,09211,427 12 2.5 117% Above average
11576Roslyn 12,2818,926 4 2.4 114% Above average
11554East Meadow 36,82110,500 10 2.4 113% Above average
11042New Hyde Park 14125,823 3 2.3 109% Above average
11581Valley Stream 22,81811,004 6 2.1 101% Above average
11030Manhasset 18,05124,267 6 2.0 95% Below average
11590Westbury 47,59924,032 11 1.8 88% Below average
11520Freeport 44,91013,634 8 1.5 74% Below average
11550Hempstead 60,96013,262 8 1.2 56% Below average
11003Elmont 45,1746,119 5 1.0 49% Far below average
11001Floral Park 25,4938,936 3 1.0 48% Far below average
11002Floral Park —8 0–2 — — Not published
11020Great Neck 5,676704 0–2 — — Not published
11022Great Neck —26 0–2 — — Not published
11023Great Neck 9,6301,844 0–2 — — Not published
11024Great Neck 9,155970 0–2 — — Not published
11096Inwood 10,4283,707 0–2 — — Not published
11509Atlantic Beach 1,790497 0–2 — — Not published
11531Garden City —61 0–2 — — Not published
11547Glenwood Landing 706171 0–2 — — Not published
11549Hempstead 2,3593,099 0–2 — — Not published
11551Hempstead —8 0–2 — — Not published
11553Uniondale 27,87510,521 0–2 — — Not published
11555Uniondale —449 0–2 — — Not published
11556Uniondale 03,287 0–2 — — Not published
11560Locust Valley 7,6962,197 0–2 — — Not published
11568Old Westbury 4,1442,787 0–2 — — Not published
11569Point Lookout 945209 0–2 — — Not published
11571Rockville Centre —35 0–2 — — Not published
11575Roosevelt 18,7051,973 0–2 — — Not published
11582Valley Stream —148 0–2 — — Not published
11709Bayville 6,744616 0–2 — — Not published
11732East Norwich 3,228688 0–2 — — Not published
11765Mill Neck 683312 0–2 — — Not published
11802Hicksville —168 0–2 — — Not published
11804Old Bethpage 4,8351,229 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Garden City

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Garden City retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Garden City retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Garden City retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Nassau County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 613 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.