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Onondaga County, NY — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 51 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.27× the U.S. rate (between 1.27× and 1.64× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 30 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 23 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Onondaga County coffee shops — 127–164% of the U.S. rate

158 coffee shops are counted in Onondaga County — 2.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 127% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 85% between 2015 and 2023 (66 → 122). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 13214 (Syracuse), 13206 (Syracuse), 13039 (Cicero) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 13027 (Baldwinsville), 13057 (East Syracuse), 13215 (Syracuse).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 148 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Onondaga County sits at 127% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 23 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 127% and 164% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 13214 and 13206; the lowest measured density is in 13027 and 13057.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
158–218
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (30 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.27×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
148
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
473,091
43 ZIPs with data
Workers
218,807
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
469,812
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−0.9%
−4,406 people
Net migration 2024
+549
international +2,795, domestic −2,246
Jobs located here
246,537
LODES 2022, −4.7% since 2019

Onondaga County had an estimated 469,812 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.9% fewer than in 2020 (−4,406). In the latest year it gained 586 people: births minus deaths +38, international migration +2,795, domestic migration −2,246. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

246,537 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.7% since 2019), and 207,765 employed residents lived there (−4.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
13027 Baldwinsville
+6.2%
13116 Minoa
+5.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
13210 Syracuse
−29.1%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
6
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$398K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$66K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 85% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Onondaga County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

66
2015
75
2018
74
2020
84
2021
106
2022
122
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
13214 Syracuse
290%
13206 Syracuse
281%
13039 Cicero
277%
13104 Manlius
274%
13210 Syracuse
233%
13204 Syracuse
222%
13219 Syracuse
222%
13066 Fayetteville
219%
13211 Syracuse
179%
13212 Syracuse
162%
13224 Syracuse
143%
13088 Liverpool
140%
13205 Syracuse
115%
13090 Liverpool
111%
13031 Camillus
104%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
13027 Baldwinsville
74%
13057 East Syracuse
88%
13215 Syracuse
88%
13208 Syracuse
93%
13031 Camillus
104%
13090 Liverpool
111%
13205 Syracuse
115%
13088 Liverpool
140%
13224 Syracuse
143%
13212 Syracuse
162%
13211 Syracuse
179%
13066 Fayetteville
219%
13219 Syracuse
222%
13204 Syracuse
222%
13210 Syracuse
233%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
13202Syracuse Employment hub 7,09816,780 12 368%
13153Skaneateles Falls Employment hub 4031,016 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
13202Syracuse 7,09816,780 12 7.7 368% Very high density
13214Syracuse 8,7028,867 8 6.1 290% Very high density
13206Syracuse 16,2458,138 12 5.9 281% Very high density
13039Cicero 16,9517,355 12 5.8 277% Very high density
13104Manlius 16,1682,353 10 5.8 274% Very high density
13210Syracuse 19,80317,623 14 4.9 233% High density
13204Syracuse 19,44012,417 12 4.7 222% High density
13219Syracuse 14,7444,793 8 4.7 222% High density
13066Fayetteville 12,5045,383 7 4.6 219% High density
13211Syracuse 6,1113,715 3 3.8 179% High density
13212Syracuse 19,91712,984 9 3.4 162% High density
13224Syracuse 8,6592,694 3 3.0 143% Above average
13088Liverpool 22,07316,853 9 3.0 140% Above average
13205Syracuse 19,1373,156 5 2.4 115% Above average
13090Liverpool 29,00410,286 8 2.3 111% Above average
13031Camillus 16,2853,998 4 2.2 104% Above average
13208Syracuse 22,9935,076 5 2.0 93% Below average
13215Syracuse 14,7512,864 3 1.9 88% Below average
13057East Syracuse 14,25325,589 5 1.8 88% Below average
13027Baldwinsville 35,0886,570 6 1.6 74% Below average
13029Brewerton 7,725812 0–2 — — Not published
13030Bridgeport 3,635345 0–2 — — Not published
13041Clay 12,3301,431 0–2 — — Not published
13060Elbridge 2,725494 0–2 — — Not published
13063Fabius 1,624112 0–2 — — Not published
13078Jamesville 10,1193,224 0–2 — — Not published
13080Jordan 3,313399 0–2 — — Not published
13082Kirkville 4,314252 0–2 — — Not published
13084La Fayette 4,159539 0–2 — — Not published
13089Liverpool —102 0–2 — — Not published
13108Marcellus 6,093778 0–2 — — Not published
13110Marietta 2,49483 0–2 — — Not published
13112Memphis 2,140111 0–2 — — Not published
13116Minoa 3,653220 0–2 — — Not published
13120Nedrow 1,625138 0–2 — — Not published
13138Pompey 15765 0–2 — — Not published
13152Skaneateles 7,6813,545 0–2 — — Not published
13153Skaneateles Falls 4031,016 0–2 — — Not published
13159Tully 5,2041,451 0–2 — — Not published
13164Warners 2,904744 0–2 — — Not published
13201Syracuse —913 0–2 — — Not published
13203Syracuse 16,1807,621 0–2 — — Not published
13207Syracuse 12,290560 0–2 — — Not published
13209Syracuse 12,7145,681 0–2 — — Not published
13217Syracuse —76 0–2 — — Not published
13218Syracuse —3 0–2 — — Not published
13220Syracuse —484 0–2 — — Not published
13221Syracuse —1,370 0–2 — — Not published
13244Syracuse 9,68311,692 0–2 — — Not published
13261Syracuse —38 0–2 — — Not published
13290Syracuse 01,556 3 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in East Syracuse

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse East Syracuse retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse East Syracuse retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse East Syracuse retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Onondaga County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 148 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.