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Greene County, OH — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 16 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.76× the U.S. rate (between 0.76× and 1.28× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 11 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Greene County coffee shops — 76–128% of the U.S. rate

32 coffee shops are counted in Greene County — 1.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 76% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 40% between 2015 and 2023 (10 → 14). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 45431 (Dayton), 45314 (Cedarville), 45432 (Dayton) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 45385 (Xenia), 45324 (Fairborn), 45432 (Dayton).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 39 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Greene County sits at 76% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 11 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 76% and 128% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 45431 and 45314; the lowest measured density is in 45385 and 45324.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
32–54
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (11 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
0.76×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
39
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
174,684
16 ZIPs with data
Workers
50,878
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
172,347
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+4,217 people
Net migration 2024
+1,999
international +726, domestic +1,273
Jobs located here
63,842
LODES 2022, −1.9% since 2019

Greene County had an estimated 172,347 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+4,217). In the latest year it gained 2,012 people: births minus deaths +23, international migration +726, domestic migration +1,273. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

63,842 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.9% since 2019), and 68,546 employed residents lived there (+2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 40% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Greene County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

10
2015
9
2018
9
2020
12
2021
13
2022
14
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
45431 Dayton
191%
45314 Cedarville
185%
45432 Dayton
111%
45324 Fairborn
72%
45385 Xenia
43%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
45385 Xenia
43%
45324 Fairborn
72%
45432 Dayton
111%
45314 Cedarville
185%
45431 Dayton
191%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
45433Dayton Employment hub 1,5083,939 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
45431Dayton 27,95113,891 14 4.0 191% High density
45314Cedarville 6,5362,342 3 3.9 185% High density
45432Dayton 15,0554,073 4 2.3 111% Above average
45324Fairborn 41,19410,486 7 1.5 72% Below average
45385Xenia 40,6177,010 4 0.9 43% Far below average
45301Alpha 224153 0–2 — — Not published
45305Bellbrook 11,4981,274 0–2 — — Not published
45307Bowersville 21620 0–2 — — Not published
45316Clifton 14132 0–2 — — Not published
45335Jamestown 7,359709 0–2 — — Not published
45370Spring Valley 2,518257 0–2 — — Not published
45384Wilberforce 1,919443 0–2 — — Not published
45387Yellow Springs 5,2851,924 0–2 — — Not published
45433Dayton 1,5083,939 0–2 — — Not published
45434Dayton 12,5294,130 0–2 — — Not published
45435Dayton 134195 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Dayton

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Dayton retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Dayton retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Dayton retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Greene County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 39 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.