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Providence County, RI — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 45 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.53× the U.S. rate (between 1.53× and 1.74× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 22 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 18 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Providence County coffee shops — 153–174% of the U.S. rate

257 coffee shops are counted in Providence County — 3.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 153% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 23% between 2015 and 2023 (198 → 244). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 02828 (Greenville), 02917 (Smithfield), 02906 (Providence) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 02907 (Providence), 02909 (Providence), 02895 (Woonsocket).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 248 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Providence County sits at 153% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 18 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 153% and 174% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 02828 and 02917; the lowest measured density is in 02907 and 02909.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
257–301
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (22 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.53×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
248
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
664,984
41 ZIPs with data
Workers
269,140
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
675,912
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.4%
+15,868 people
Net migration 2024
+7,657
international +8,219, domestic −562
Jobs located here
290,294
LODES 2022, −2.2% since 2019

Providence County had an estimated 675,912 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.4% more than in 2020 (+15,868). In the latest year it gained 8,693 people: births minus deaths +1,019, international migration +8,219, domestic migration −562. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

290,294 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.2% since 2019), and 302,108 employed residents lived there (+0.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
02863 Central Falls
+16.9%
02909 Providence
+12.8%
02864 Cumberland
+5.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
31
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$54K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 23% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Providence County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

198
2015
211
2018
209
2020
219
2021
239
2022
244
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02828 Greenville
397%
02917 Smithfield
303%
02906 Providence
294%
02920 Cranston
272%
02904 Providence
264%
02919 Johnston
216%
02865 Lincoln
184%
02916 Rumford
180%
02814 Chepachet
174%
02864 Cumberland
170%
02915 Riverside
145%
02860 Pawtucket
141%
02905 Providence
127%
02863 Central Falls
119%
02910 Cranston
105%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02907 Providence
54%
02909 Providence
77%
02895 Woonsocket
85%
02911 North Providence
86%
02914 East Providence
86%
02861 Pawtucket
93%
02908 Providence
105%
02910 Cranston
105%
02863 Central Falls
119%
02905 Providence
127%
02860 Pawtucket
141%
02915 Riverside
145%
02864 Cumberland
170%
02814 Chepachet
174%
02916 Rumford
180%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
02903Providence Employment hub 11,83643,239 32 455%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
02903Providence 11,83643,239 32 9.6 455% Very high density
02828Greenville 7,0232,736 7 8.3 397% Very high density
02917Smithfield 15,29313,397 14 6.4 303% Very high density
02906Providence 26,38011,971 20 6.2 294% Very high density
02920Cranston 37,15516,751 26 5.7 272% Very high density
02904Providence 32,53114,147 22 5.6 264% Very high density
02919Johnston 29,80215,255 17 4.5 216% High density
02865Lincoln 18,44714,737 10 3.9 184% High density
02916Rumford 8,6953,713 4 3.8 180% High density
02814Chepachet 7,5871,255 3 3.7 174% High density
02864Cumberland 36,82010,244 15 3.6 170% High density
02915Riverside 16,7525,957 6 3.0 145% Above average
02860Pawtucket 47,81812,537 16 3.0 141% Above average
02905Providence 25,0129,934 8 2.7 127% Above average
02863Central Falls 22,7012,676 6 2.5 119% Above average
02910Cranston 23,4997,099 6 2.2 105% Above average
02908Providence 39,50011,244 10 2.2 105% Above average
02861Pawtucket 28,1245,426 6 1.9 93% Below average
02914East Providence 21,83411,471 5 1.8 86% Below average
02911North Providence 15,6532,005 3 1.8 86% Below average
02895Woonsocket 43,52113,742 9 1.8 85% Below average
02909Providence 46,0146,773 8 1.6 77% Below average
02907Providence 31,4617,563 4 1.1 54% Below average
02802Albion 67729 0–2 — — Not published
02815Clayville 1619 0–2 — — Not published
02824Forestdale 448131 0–2 — — Not published
02825Foster 6,107311 0–2 — — Not published
02826Glendale 831208 0–2 — — Not published
02829Harmony 5160 0–2 — — Not published
02830Harrisville 6,637789 0–2 — — Not published
02831Hope 3,483257 0–2 — — Not published
02838Manville 3,740352 0–2 — — Not published
02839Mapleville 1,525658 0–2 — — Not published
02857North Scituate 8,262979 0–2 — — Not published
02858Oakland 73832 0–2 — — Not published
02859Pascoag 7,0181,169 0–2 — — Not published
02862Pawtucket —2,234 0–2 — — Not published
02876Slatersville 355398 0–2 — — Not published
02896North Smithfield 11,5833,709 0–2 — — Not published
02901Providence —62 0–2 — — Not published
02902Providence —1,556 0–2 — — Not published
02912Providence 4,8369,181 0–2 — — Not published
02918Providence 2,9252,380 0–2 — — Not published
02921Cranston 12,1494,616 0–2 — — Not published
02940Providence —182 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Providence

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Providence retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Providence retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Providence retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Providence County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 248 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.