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Denton County, TX — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 33 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.51× the U.S. rate (between 1.51× and 1.56× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 11 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 6 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Denton County coffee shops — 151–156% of the U.S. rate

365 coffee shops are counted in Denton County — 3.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 151% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 108% between 2015 and 2023 (164 → 341). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 75007 (Carrollton), 75034 (Frisco), 75022 (Flower Mound) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 75068 (Little Elm), 75057 (Lewisville), 76209 (Denton).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 255 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Denton County sits at 151% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 6 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 151% and 156% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 75007 and 75034; the lowest measured density is in 75068 and 75057.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
365–387
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (11 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.51×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
255
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
978,658
28 ZIPs with data
Workers
345,999
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,045,120
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+14.3%
+130,610 people
Net migration 2024
+24,787
international +9,456, domestic +15,331
Jobs located here
302,695
LODES 2022, +13.7% since 2019

Denton County had an estimated 1,045,120 residents on July 1, 2024 — 14.3% more than in 2020 (+130,610). In the latest year it gained 31,384 people: births minus deaths +6,579, international migration +9,456, domestic migration +15,331. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

302,695 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+13.7% since 2019), and 513,049 employed residents lived there (+12.6% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
76227 Aubrey
+82.5%
76226 Argyle
+62.9%
76247 Justin
+59.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
75034 Frisco
−50.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
64
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$42K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 108% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Denton County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

164
2015
222
2018
255
2020
282
2021
306
2022
341
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
75007 Carrollton
322%
75034 Frisco
288%
75022 Flower Mound
271%
76201 Denton
246%
75010 Carrollton
202%
76205 Denton
194%
75028 Flower Mound
176%
75077 Lewisville
173%
75067 Lewisville
165%
76262 Roanoke
158%
75033 Frisco
152%
75056 The Colony
148%
76247 Justin
142%
76210 Denton
108%
76227 Aubrey
102%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
75068 Little Elm
63%
75057 Lewisville
64%
76209 Denton
66%
76266 Sanger
70%
76226 Argyle
91%
75036 Frisco
95%
75065 Lake Dallas
96%
76227 Aubrey
102%
76210 Denton
108%
76247 Justin
142%
75056 The Colony
148%
75033 Frisco
152%
76262 Roanoke
158%
75067 Lewisville
165%
75077 Lewisville
173%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
75007Carrollton 54,64617,831 43 6.8 322% Very high density
75034Frisco 53,81867,223 53 6.1 288% Very high density
75022Flower Mound 26,0907,557 17 5.7 271% Very high density
76201Denton 31,14322,628 22 5.2 246% High density
75010Carrollton 33,3268,715 16 4.2 202% High density
76205Denton 18,97810,971 10 4.1 194% High density
75028Flower Mound 49,09420,591 22 3.7 176% High density
75077Lewisville 42,9507,565 17 3.6 173% High density
75067Lewisville 66,91327,887 28 3.5 165% High density
76262Roanoke 43,62033,349 20 3.3 158% High density
75033Frisco 52,79513,573 19 3.2 152% High density
75056The Colony 69,62821,469 25 3.1 148% Above average
76247Justin 21,7263,305 7 3.0 142% Above average
76210Denton 47,61010,551 12 2.3 108% Above average
76227Aubrey 62,1276,169 14 2.1 102% Above average
75065Lake Dallas 13,6572,317 3 2.0 96% Below average
75036Frisco 33,4963,092 7 2.0 95% Below average
76226Argyle 43,5876,536 9 1.9 91% Below average
76266Sanger 18,1554,196 3 1.5 70% Below average
76209Denton 27,9821,985 4 1.4 66% Below average
75057Lewisville 17,95823,928 4 1.3 64% Below average
75068Little Elm 72,7104,746 10 1.3 63% Below average
75027Flower Mound —103 0–2 — — Not published
75029Lewisville —103 0–2 — — Not published
76202Denton —251 0–2 — — Not published
76203Denton 1,085146 0–2 — — Not published
76204Denton —71 0–2 — — Not published
76206Denton —82 0–2 — — Not published
76207Denton 19,8628,964 0–2 — — Not published
76208Denton 30,0256,179 0–2 — — Not published
76249Krum 10,6371,130 0–2 — — Not published
76258Pilot Point 8,4442,563 0–2 — — Not published
76259Ponder 6,596833 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Frisco

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Frisco retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Frisco retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Frisco retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Denton County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 255 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.