BizGapMap

Home / Convenience stores / Connecticut / Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT

Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT — Convenience stores Saturation

How many convenience stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 25 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Convenience stores · Corner stores · Small-format food & fuel marts. Counted together because official statistics use one 445120 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.53× the U.S. rate (between 0.53× and 2.94× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 23 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region convenience stores — 53–294% of the U.S. rate

10 convenience stores are counted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region — 0.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 53% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 9% between 2022 and 2023 (11 → 10). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 06416 (Cromwell), 06457 (Middletown) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 06457 (Middletown), 06416 (Cromwell).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 19 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region sits at 53% of the U.S. rate for convenience stores. 23 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 53% and 294% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 06416 and 06457; the lowest measured density is in 06457 and 06416.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing convenience stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Convenience stores
10–56
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (23 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
0.53×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
19
2023 — $1M annual payroll
Residents
175,257
25 ZIPs with data
Workers
65,999
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
177,540
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+4,259 people
Net migration 2024
+1,167
international +834, domestic +333
Jobs located here
67,698
LODES 2022, −1.2% since 2019

Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region had an estimated 177,540 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+4,259). In the latest year it gained 866 people: births minus deaths −298, international migration +834, domestic migration +333. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

67,698 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.2% since 2019), and 85,275 employed residents lived there (−1.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06475 Old Saybrook
+4.8%
06413 Clinton
+3.5%
06416 Cromwell
+3.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06419 Killingworth
−2.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes convenience stores only combined with vending machine operators, so a convenience-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more convenience stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 9% since 2022

Number of convenience stores in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region across 2022–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

11
2022
10
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06416 Cromwell
304%
06457 Middletown
92%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06457 Middletown
92%
06416 Cromwell
304%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few convenience stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersConvenience storesIndex
06459Middletown Employment hub 1,2383,062 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = convenience stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersConvenience stores Per 10kIndexStatus
06416Cromwell 14,3347,348 5 2.8 304% Very high density
06457Middletown 46,72025,023 5 0.8 92% Below average
06371Old Lyme 9,8281,809 0–2 — — Not published
06409Centerbrook 701749 0–2 — — Not published
06412Chester 3,8251,912 0–2 — — Not published
06413Clinton 13,3773,621 0–2 — — Not published
06414Cobalt 30265 0–2 — — Not published
06417Deep River 4,458948 0–2 — — Not published
06419Killingworth 6,240722 0–2 — — Not published
06422Durham 7,2082,451 0–2 — — Not published
06423East Haddam 5,182525 0–2 — — Not published
06424East Hampton 12,7511,618 0–2 — — Not published
06426Essex 3,2672,087 0–2 — — Not published
06438Haddam 2,887429 0–2 — — Not published
06439Hadlyme 6538 0–2 — — Not published
06441Higganum 5,348523 0–2 — — Not published
06442Ivoryton 2,826303 0–2 — — Not published
06455Middlefield 2,4801,271 0–2 — — Not published
06456Middle Haddam 28112 0–2 — — Not published
06459Middletown 1,2383,062 0–2 — — Not published
06469Moodus 3,311402 0–2 — — Not published
06475Old Saybrook 10,5755,206 0–2 — — Not published
06480Portland 9,4341,906 0–2 — — Not published
06481Rockfall 1,763766 0–2 — — Not published
06498Westbrook 6,8563,203 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Middletown

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Middletown retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Middletown retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Middletown retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region and convenience stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445120 — convenience retailers. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 19 establishments and $1M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.91 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.