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Shelby County, TN — Dentists Saturation

How many dentists exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 60 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: General & family dentists · Orthodontists · Oral surgeons · Other dental specialists. Counted together because official statistics use one 621210 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.75× the U.S. rate (between 0.75× and 0.83× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 38 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 15 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Shelby County dentists — 75–83% of the U.S. rate

293 dentists are counted in Shelby County — 2.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 75% of the U.S. rate of 3.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 13% between 2015 and 2023 (335 → 293). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 38138 (Germantown), 38119 (Memphis), 38120 (Memphis) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 38125 (Memphis), 38103 (Memphis), 38111 (Memphis).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 302 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Shelby County sits at 75% of the U.S. rate for dentists. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 75% and 83% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 38138 and 38119; the lowest measured density is in 38125 and 38103.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing dentists and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Dentists
293–369
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (38 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
3.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.75×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
302
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
931,943
36 ZIPs with data
Workers
428,809
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
910,530
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−2.1%
−19,258 people
Net migration 2024
−6,963
international +5,341, domestic −12,304
Jobs located here
495,715
LODES 2022, −1.8% since 2019

Shelby County had an estimated 910,530 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.1% fewer than in 2020 (−19,258). In the latest year it lost 3,379 people: births minus deaths +3,613, international migration +5,341, domestic migration −12,304. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

495,715 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.8% since 2019), and 413,908 employed residents lived there (−2.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant increase.

ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
38114 Memphis
−20.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
117
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$9.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$83K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more dentists in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 13% since 2015

Number of dentists in Shelby County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

335
2015
322
2018
298
2020
305
2021
301
2022
293
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
38138 Germantown
344%
38119 Memphis
328%
38120 Memphis
264%
38117 Memphis
215%
38104 Memphis
128%
38018 Cordova
121%
38105 Memphis
121%
38134 Memphis
114%
38139 Germantown
103%
38017 Collierville
103%
38053 Millington
85%
38133 Memphis
82%
38016 Cordova
68%
38122 Memphis
62%
38116 Memphis
62%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
38125 Memphis
34%
38103 Memphis
43%
38111 Memphis
46%
38002 Arlington
50%
38114 Memphis
54%
38115 Memphis
59%
38116 Memphis
62%
38122 Memphis
62%
38016 Cordova
68%
38133 Memphis
82%
38053 Millington
85%
38017 Collierville
103%
38139 Germantown
103%
38134 Memphis
114%
38105 Memphis
121%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few dentists may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDentistsIndex
38054Millington Employment hub 102259 0–2 —
38132Memphis Destination 302,602 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = dentists per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDentists Per 10kIndexStatus
38138Germantown 25,16720,735 41 11.5 344% Very high density
38119Memphis 23,46420,433 37 11.0 328% Very high density
38120Memphis 13,30916,399 19 8.8 264% Very high density
38117Memphis 25,77615,171 24 7.2 215% High density
38104Memphis 22,63420,112 14 4.3 128% Above average
38018Cordova 38,52711,621 18 4.1 121% Above average
38105Memphis 5,5348,712 4 4.0 121% Above average
38134Memphis 43,94722,107 21 3.8 114% Above average
38139Germantown 16,4661,799 6 3.5 103% Above average
38017Collierville 56,82625,584 24 3.4 103% Above average
38053Millington 25,3035,868 8 2.8 85% Below average
38133Memphis 21,27823,000 9 2.7 82% Below average
38016Cordova 44,1368,392 11 2.3 68% Below average
38122Memphis 26,0216,000 6 2.1 62% Below average
38116Memphis 40,06116,796 10 2.1 62% Below average
38115Memphis 38,49114,618 9 2.0 59% Below average
38114Memphis 20,2983,280 4 1.8 54% Below average
38002Arlington 43,8827,080 8 1.7 50% Below average
38111Memphis 41,9347,260 7 1.5 46% Far below average
38103Memphis 14,53426,012 4 1.5 43% Far below average
38125Memphis 43,07118,079 6 1.2 34% Far below average
37501Memphis —595 0–2 — — Not published
38014Brunswick —36 0–2 — — Not published
38027Collierville —65 0–2 — — Not published
38028Eads 7,9921,504 0–2 — — Not published
38029Ellendale 039 0–2 — — Not published
38054Millington 102259 0–2 — — Not published
38055Millington —51 0–2 — — Not published
38083Millington —22 0–2 — — Not published
38088Cordova —107 0–2 — — Not published
38101Memphis —9,828 0–2 — — Not published
38106Memphis 20,9626,724 0–2 — — Not published
38107Memphis 13,9121,953 0–2 — — Not published
38108Memphis 17,5623,431 0–2 — — Not published
38109Memphis 42,4526,144 0–2 — — Not published
38112Memphis 16,8097,128 0–2 — — Not published
38113Memphis 02,092 0–2 — — Not published
38118Memphis 39,10764,496 0–2 — — Not published
38124Memphis —60 0–2 — — Not published
38126Memphis 5,9462,116 0–2 — — Not published
38127Memphis 39,5416,710 0–2 — — Not published
38128Memphis 42,16210,083 0–2 — — Not published
38130Memphis —444 0–2 — — Not published
38131Memphis 01,007 0–2 — — Not published
38132Memphis 302,602 0–2 — — Not published
38135Memphis 30,3171,918 0–2 — — Not published
38137Memphis —1,949 0–2 — — Not published
38141Memphis 23,95214,196 0–2 — — Not published
38152Memphis 438487 0–2 — — Not published
38157Memphis —931 0–2 — — Not published
38168Memphis —16 3 — — Not published
38173Memphis —49 0–2 — — Not published
38175Memphis —68 0–2 — — Not published
38177Memphis —30 0–2 — — Not published
38181Memphis —60 0–2 — — Not published
38183Germantown —87 0–2 — — Not published
38184Memphis —115 0–2 — — Not published
38186Memphis —35 0–2 — — Not published
38187Memphis —156 0–2 — — Not published
38194Memphis —733 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Memphis

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Memphis retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Memphis retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Memphis retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Shelby County and dentists

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 621210 — offices of dentists. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 302 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (3.35 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.