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Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 25 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.89× the U.S. rate (between 0.89× and 1.07× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 12 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region fast food — 89–107% of the U.S. rate

124 fast food are counted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region — 6.0 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 89% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2022 and 2023 (121 → 121).

Measured supply density is highest in 06475 (Old Saybrook), 06416 (Cromwell), 06457 (Middletown) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 06371 (Old Lyme), 06413 (Clinton), 06498 (Westbrook).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 143 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region sits at 89% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 12 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 89% and 107% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 06475 and 06416; the lowest measured density is in 06371 and 06413.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
124–148
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (12 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.0
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.89×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
143
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
175,257
25 ZIPs with data
Workers
65,999
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
177,540
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+4,259 people
Net migration 2024
+1,167
international +834, domestic +333
Jobs located here
67,698
LODES 2022, −1.2% since 2019

Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region had an estimated 177,540 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+4,259). In the latest year it gained 866 people: births minus deaths −298, international migration +834, domestic migration +333. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

67,698 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.2% since 2019), and 85,275 employed residents lived there (−1.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06475 Old Saybrook
+4.8%
06413 Clinton
+3.5%
06416 Cromwell
+3.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06419 Killingworth
−2.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
31
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$83K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 0% since 2022

Number of fast food in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region across 2022–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

121
2022
121
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06475 Old Saybrook
182%
06416 Cromwell
175%
06457 Middletown
106%
06419 Killingworth
91%
06424 East Hampton
77%
06480 Portland
72%
06422 Durham
71%
06498 Westbrook
71%
06413 Clinton
69%
06371 Old Lyme
56%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06371 Old Lyme
56%
06413 Clinton
69%
06498 Westbrook
71%
06422 Durham
71%
06480 Portland
72%
06424 East Hampton
77%
06419 Killingworth
91%
06457 Middletown
106%
06416 Cromwell
175%
06475 Old Saybrook
182%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
06459Middletown Employment hub 1,2383,062 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
06475Old Saybrook 10,5755,206 16 12.1 182% High density
06416Cromwell 14,3347,348 21 11.7 175% High density
06426Essex 3,2672,087 4 9.3 139% Above average
06457Middletown 46,72025,023 42 7.1 106% Above average
06412Chester 3,8251,912 3 6.3 94% Below average
06417Deep River 4,458948 3 6.1 91% Below average
06419Killingworth 6,240722 4 6.1 91% Below average
06424East Hampton 12,7511,618 7 5.2 77% Below average
06480Portland 9,4341,906 5 4.8 72% Below average
06422Durham 7,2082,451 4 4.7 71% Below average
06498Westbrook 6,8563,203 4 4.7 71% Below average
06413Clinton 13,3773,621 7 4.6 69% Below average
06371Old Lyme 9,8281,809 4 3.7 56% Below average
06409Centerbrook 701749 0–2 — — Not published
06414Cobalt 30265 0–2 — — Not published
06423East Haddam 5,182525 0–2 — — Not published
06438Haddam 2,887429 0–2 — — Not published
06439Hadlyme 6538 0–2 — — Not published
06441Higganum 5,348523 0–2 — — Not published
06442Ivoryton 2,826303 0–2 — — Not published
06455Middlefield 2,4801,271 0–2 — — Not published
06456Middle Haddam 28112 0–2 — — Not published
06459Middletown 1,2383,062 0–2 — — Not published
06469Moodus 3,311402 0–2 — — Not published
06481Rockfall 1,763766 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Middletown

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Middletown retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Middletown retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Middletown retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 143 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.