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Berrien County, MI — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 23 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.95× the U.S. rate (between 0.95× and 1.16× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 13 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Berrien County fast food — 95–116% of the U.S. rate

121 fast food are counted in Berrien County — 6.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 95% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 19% between 2015 and 2023 (98 → 117). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 49085 (Saint Joseph), 49098 (Watervliet), 49127 (Stevensville) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 49103 (Berrien Springs), 49107 (Buchanan), 49022 (Benton Harbor).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 126 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Berrien County sits at 95% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 95% and 116% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 49085 and 49098; the lowest measured density is in 49103 and 49107.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
121–147
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (13 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.95×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
126
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
163,620
23 ZIPs with data
Workers
53,561
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
152,703
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.1%
−1,723 people
Net migration 2024
+539
international +806, domestic −267
Jobs located here
53,306
LODES 2021, −12.4% since 2019

Berrien County had an estimated 152,703 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.1% fewer than in 2020 (−1,723). In the latest year it gained 52 people: births minus deaths −487, international migration +806, domestic migration −267. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

53,306 jobs were located in the county in 2021 (−12.4% since 2019), and 62,777 employed residents lived there (−7.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2021 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend. The 2022 file for this state is not usable, so 2021 is the latest year shown.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
49103 Berrien Springs
+11.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
49022 Benton Harbor
−5.5%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
20
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$87K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 19% since 2015

Number of fast food in Berrien County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

98
2015
107
2018
105
2020
112
2021
113
2022
117
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
49085 Saint Joseph
136%
49098 Watervliet
130%
49127 Stevensville
117%
49038 Coloma
114%
49120 Niles
106%
49022 Benton Harbor
85%
49107 Buchanan
54%
49103 Berrien Springs
48%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
49103 Berrien Springs
48%
49107 Buchanan
54%
49022 Benton Harbor
85%
49120 Niles
106%
49038 Coloma
114%
49127 Stevensville
117%
49098 Watervliet
130%
49085 Saint Joseph
136%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
49084Riverside Employment hub 38109 0–2 —
49104Berrien Springs Employment hub 3831,675 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
49117New Buffalo 3,3581,327 6 14.9 224% High density
49106Bridgman 4,7412,659 7 11.5 173% High density
49085Saint Joseph 23,82714,178 28 9.1 136% Above average
49098Watervliet 6,2151,367 6 8.7 130% Above average
49127Stevensville 11,1553,347 10 7.8 117% Above average
49038Coloma 8,6161,244 7 7.6 114% Above average
49120Niles 36,4959,131 29 7.1 106% Above average
49022Benton Harbor 29,46012,013 20 5.6 85% Below average
49107Buchanan 10,3231,562 4 3.6 54% Below average
49103Berrien Springs 11,5901,695 4 3.2 48% Far below average
49084Riverside 38109 0–2 — — Not published
49101Baroda 2,947455 0–2 — — Not published
49102Berrien Center 1,472108 0–2 — — Not published
49104Berrien Springs 3831,675 0–2 — — Not published
49111Eau Claire 3,159415 0–2 — — Not published
49113Galien 1,742383 0–2 — — Not published
49115Harbert 14771 0–2 — — Not published
49116Lakeside 8678 0–2 — — Not published
49119New Troy 134243 0–2 — — Not published
49125Sawyer 1,990569 0–2 — — Not published
49126Sodus 1,623211 0–2 — — Not published
49128Three Oaks 3,450483 0–2 — — Not published
49129Union Pier 669238 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Saint Joseph

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Saint Joseph retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Saint Joseph retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Saint Joseph retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Berrien County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 126 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.