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Trumbull County, OH — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 27 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.06× the U.S. rate (between 1.06× and 1.27× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 17 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 15 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Trumbull County fast food — 106–127% of the U.S. rate

156 fast food are counted in Trumbull County — 7.1 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 106% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 25% between 2015 and 2023 (120 → 150). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 44446 (Niles), 44484 (Warren), 44425 (Hubbard) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 44485 (Warren), 44481 (Warren), 44420 (Girard).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 180 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Trumbull County sits at 106% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 106% and 127% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 44446 and 44484; the lowest measured density is in 44485 and 44481.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
156–190
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (17 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
7.1
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
1.06×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
180
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
193,501
25 ZIPs with data
Workers
52,232
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
200,300
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−0.7%
−1,382 people
Net migration 2024
+734
international +57, domestic +677
Jobs located here
60,345
LODES 2022, −4.6% since 2019

Trumbull County had an estimated 200,300 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.7% fewer than in 2020 (−1,382). In the latest year it lost 54 people: births minus deaths −777, international migration +57, domestic migration +677. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

60,345 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.6% since 2019), and 81,976 employed residents lived there (−1.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
32
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.2M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$39K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 25% since 2015

Number of fast food in Trumbull County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

120
2015
135
2018
129
2020
135
2021
143
2022
150
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
44446 Niles
230%
44484 Warren
183%
44425 Hubbard
130%
44444 Newton Falls
122%
44483 Warren
119%
44410 Cortland
112%
44420 Girard
84%
44481 Warren
83%
44485 Warren
57%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
44485 Warren
57%
44481 Warren
83%
44420 Girard
84%
44410 Cortland
112%
44483 Warren
119%
44444 Newton Falls
122%
44425 Hubbard
130%
44484 Warren
183%
44446 Niles
230%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
44446Niles 20,0608,082 37 15.4 230% High density
44440Mineral Ridge 4,418490 6 12.9 193% High density
44484Warren 21,3588,056 31 12.2 183% High density
44425Hubbard 13,5522,871 13 8.7 130% Above average
44444Newton Falls 9,2201,283 8 8.1 122% Above average
44483Warren 25,80511,316 25 7.9 119% Above average
44410Cortland 15,9922,847 13 7.5 112% Above average
44420Girard 15,2935,056 10 5.6 84% Below average
44481Warren 10,2064,800 7 5.6 83% Below average
44485Warren 14,9301,489 6 3.8 57% Below average
44402Bristolville 2,613150 0–2 — — Not published
44403Brookfield 3,7431,029 0–2 — — Not published
44404Burghill 1,66336 0–2 — — Not published
44417Farmdale 1,55054 0–2 — — Not published
44418Fowler 1,50897 0–2 — — Not published
44424Hartford 8383 0–2 — — Not published
44428Kinsman 3,102497 0–2 — — Not published
44430Leavittsburg 4,827158 0–2 — — Not published
44437Mc Donald 3,913234 0–2 — — Not published
44438Masury 4,950906 0–2 — — Not published
44439Mesopotamia 49985 0–2 — — Not published
44450North Bloomfield 2,246209 0–2 — — Not published
44453Orangeville —16 0–2 — — Not published
44470Southington 4,104155 0–2 — — Not published
44473Vienna 4,2131,994 0–2 — — Not published
44482Warren —329 0–2 — — Not published
44491West Farmington 3,653255 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Warren

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Warren retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Warren retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Warren retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Trumbull County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 180 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.