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Prince William County, VA — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 21 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.96× the U.S. rate (between 0.96× and 0.98× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 9 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 4 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Prince William County fast food — 96–98% of the U.S. rate

358 fast food are counted in Prince William County — 6.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 96% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 27% between 2015 and 2023 (283 → 358). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 22192 (Woodbridge), 22134 (Quantico), 20109 (Manassas) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 20136 (Bristow), 20112 (Manassas), 20111 (Manassas).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 357 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Prince William County sits at 96% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 4 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 96% and 98% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 22192 and 22134; the lowest measured density is in 20136 and 20112.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
358–376
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (9 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.96×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
357
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
501,551
16 ZIPs with data
Workers
114,472
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
497,003
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.9%
+14,140 people
Net migration 2024
+1,574
international +5,137, domestic −3,563
Jobs located here
133,242
LODES 2022, −0.1% since 2019

Prince William County had an estimated 497,003 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.9% more than in 2020 (+14,140). In the latest year it gained 5,425 people: births minus deaths +3,833, international migration +5,137, domestic migration −3,563. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

133,242 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.1% since 2019), and 217,011 employed residents lived there (−0.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
22026 Dumfries
+39.1%
20112 Manassas
+14.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
111
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$4.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$40K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 27% since 2015

Number of fast food in Prince William County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

283
2015
334
2018
328
2020
342
2021
361
2022
358
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
22192 Woodbridge
189%
22134 Quantico
165%
20109 Manassas
140%
20155 Gainesville
130%
22026 Dumfries
101%
22191 Woodbridge
92%
22025 Dumfries
88%
20169 Haymarket
73%
22193 Woodbridge
65%
20111 Manassas
48%
20112 Manassas
47%
20136 Bristow
44%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
20136 Bristow
44%
20112 Manassas
47%
20111 Manassas
48%
22193 Woodbridge
65%
20169 Haymarket
73%
22025 Dumfries
88%
22191 Woodbridge
92%
22026 Dumfries
101%
20155 Gainesville
130%
20109 Manassas
140%
22134 Quantico
165%
22192 Woodbridge
189%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
22192Woodbridge 59,79423,351 90 12.6 189% High density
22134Quantico 8,3101,595 10 11.0 165% High density
20109Manassas 45,44429,203 56 9.3 140% Above average
20155Gainesville 37,48615,049 39 8.7 130% Above average
22026Dumfries 22,8974,858 17 6.7 101% Above average
22191Woodbridge 73,62312,099 49 6.2 92% Below average
22025Dumfries 19,3562,286 12 5.9 88% Below average
20169Haymarket 28,0895,089 15 4.9 73% Below average
22193Woodbridge 81,5886,976 37 4.3 65% Below average
20111Manassas 38,1245,257 13 3.2 48% Far below average
20112Manassas 30,5002,646 10 3.1 47% Far below average
20136Bristow 32,3253,618 10 2.9 44% Far below average
20143Catharpin 1,070283 0–2 — — Not published
20156Gainesville —67 0–2 — — Not published
20168Haymarket —146 0–2 — — Not published
20181Nokesville 10,7741,011 0–2 — — Not published
20182Nokesville —29 0–2 — — Not published
22125Occoquan 681478 0–2 — — Not published
22172Triangle 11,490673 0–2 — — Not published
22194Woodbridge —64 0–2 — — Not published
22195Woodbridge —11 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Manassas

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Manassas retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Manassas retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Manassas retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Prince William County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 357 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.