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St. Joseph County, IN — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 25 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.70× the U.S. rate (between 0.70× and 1.18× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 18 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 13 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   St. Joseph County grocery stores — 70–118% of the U.S. rate

37 grocery stores are counted in St. Joseph County — 1.1 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 70% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 24% between 2015 and 2023 (25 → 31). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 46619 (South Bend), 46617 (South Bend), 46637 (South Bend) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 46614 (South Bend), 46544 (Mishawaka), 46545 (Mishawaka).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 35 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: St. Joseph County sits at 70% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 70% and 118% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 46619 and 46617; the lowest measured density is in 46614 and 46544.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
37–73
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (18 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.1
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.70×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
35
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
282,397
20 ZIPs with data
Workers
119,989
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
273,744
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.4%
+1,056 people
Net migration 2024
−239
international +1,558, domestic −1,797
Jobs located here
120,317
LODES 2022, −3.0% since 2019

St. Joseph County had an estimated 273,744 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.4% more than in 2020 (+1,056). In the latest year it gained 86 people: births minus deaths +327, international migration +1,558, domestic migration −1,797. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

120,317 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.0% since 2019), and 120,044 employed residents lived there (−3.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant increase.

ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
46574 Walkerton
−21.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 24% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in St. Joseph County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

25
2015
28
2018
28
2020
25
2021
28
2022
31
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
46619 South Bend
215%
46617 South Bend
156%
46637 South Bend
143%
46545 Mishawaka
133%
46544 Mishawaka
127%
46614 South Bend
77%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
46614 South Bend
77%
46544 Mishawaka
127%
46545 Mishawaka
133%
46637 South Bend
143%
46617 South Bend
156%
46619 South Bend
215%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
46601South Bend Employment hub 4,80013,144 3 170%
46624South Bend Destination 28902 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
46619South Bend 21,7294,445 8 3.3 215% High density
46601South Bend 4,80013,144 3 2.6 170% High density
46617South Bend 10,0324,743 3 2.4 156% High density
46637South Bend 16,2003,498 4 2.2 143% Above average
46545Mishawaka 26,60624,030 8 2.1 133% Above average
46544Mishawaka 31,0778,792 7 2.0 127% Above average
46614South Bend 29,6028,023 4 1.2 77% Below average
46530Granger 31,5986,826 0–2 — — Not published
46536Lakeville 2,964443 0–2 — — Not published
46546Mishawaka —221 0–2 — — Not published
46552New Carlisle 7,0471,842 0–2 — — Not published
46554North Liberty 4,405593 0–2 — — Not published
46556Notre Dame 8,34416,660 0–2 — — Not published
46561Osceola 13,9961,467 0–2 — — Not published
46574Walkerton 7,4261,487 0–2 — — Not published
46595Wyatt 031 0–2 — — Not published
46613South Bend 12,2791,843 0–2 — — Not published
46615South Bend 14,1902,359 0–2 — — Not published
46616South Bend 5,979324 0–2 — — Not published
46624South Bend 28902 0–2 — — Not published
46628South Bend 27,68515,234 0–2 — — Not published
46634South Bend —81 0–2 — — Not published
46635South Bend 6,4103,334 0–2 — — Not published
46660South Bend —5 0–2 — — Not published
46680South Bend —36 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Mishawaka

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Mishawaka retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Mishawaka retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Mishawaka retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow St. Joseph County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 35 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.