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Worcester County, MA — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 94 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.58× the U.S. rate (between 0.58× and 1.39× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 77 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 64 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Worcester County grocery stores — 58–139% of the U.S. rate

92 grocery stores are counted in Worcester County — 0.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 58% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 4% between 2015 and 2023 (80 → 83). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 01005 (Barre), 01566 (Sturbridge), 01610 (Worcester) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01581 (Westborough), 01420 (Fitchburg), 01440 (Gardner).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 106 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Worcester County sits at 58% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 64 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 58% and 139% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 01005 and 01566; the lowest measured density is in 01581 and 01420.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
92–246
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (77 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.58×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
106
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
865,923
81 ZIPs with data
Workers
309,231
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
881,248
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.8%
+24,156 people
Net migration 2024
+7,666
international +9,470, domestic −1,804
Jobs located here
352,167
LODES 2022, −0.4% since 2019

Worcester County had an estimated 881,248 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.8% more than in 2020 (+24,156). In the latest year it gained 8,435 people: births minus deaths +738, international migration +9,470, domestic migration −1,804. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

352,167 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.4% since 2019), and 420,374 employed residents lived there (−0.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01610 Worcester
+38.2%
01566 Sturbridge
+31.7%
01602 Worcester
+18.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01518 Fiskdale
−34.2%
01452 Hubbardston
−7.2%
01475 Winchendon
−5.2%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 4% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Worcester County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

80
2015
74
2018
75
2020
76
2021
81
2022
83
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01005 Barre
340%
01566 Sturbridge
275%
01610 Worcester
201%
01550 Southbridge
157%
01603 Worcester
131%
01604 Worcester
126%
01545 Shrewsbury
125%
01609 Worcester
119%
01757 Milford
114%
01510 Clinton
111%
01453 Leominster
109%
01605 Worcester
95%
01570 Webster
92%
01440 Gardner
78%
01420 Fitchburg
55%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01581 Westborough
52%
01420 Fitchburg
55%
01440 Gardner
78%
01570 Webster
92%
01605 Worcester
95%
01453 Leominster
109%
01510 Clinton
111%
01757 Milford
114%
01609 Worcester
119%
01545 Shrewsbury
125%
01604 Worcester
126%
01603 Worcester
131%
01550 Southbridge
157%
01610 Worcester
201%
01566 Sturbridge
275%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
01608Worcester Employment hub 4,93212,371 3 174%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
01005Barre 5,204947 3 5.3 340% Very high density
01566Sturbridge 7,3623,958 4 4.3 275% Very high density
01610Worcester 30,4449,592 11 3.1 201% High density
01608Worcester 4,93212,371 3 2.7 174% High density
01550Southbridge 17,9285,221 5 2.4 157% High density
01603Worcester 20,8687,333 5 2.0 131% Above average
01604Worcester 39,81212,170 9 2.0 126% Above average
01545Shrewsbury 38,87614,886 9 1.9 125% Above average
01609Worcester 22,04710,134 5 1.8 119% Above average
01757Milford 30,60917,758 7 1.8 114% Above average
01510Clinton 15,5633,685 3 1.7 111% Above average
01453Leominster 43,85118,322 9 1.7 109% Above average
01605Worcester 30,57919,786 6 1.5 95% Below average
01570Webster 17,7486,540 3 1.4 92% Below average
01440Gardner 21,2767,079 3 1.2 78% Below average
01420Fitchburg 41,83910,364 4 0.9 55% Below average
01581Westborough 21,94430,063 3 0.8 52% Below average
01031Gilbertville 1,676156 0–2 — — Not published
01037Hardwick 572299 0–2 — — Not published
01068Oakham 1,63989 0–2 — — Not published
01074South Barre 36866 0–2 — — Not published
01083Warren 2,858323 0–2 — — Not published
01092West Warren 1,20053 0–2 — — Not published
01331Athol 13,9223,428 0–2 — — Not published
01366Petersham 1,185136 0–2 — — Not published
01368Royalston 1,45552 0–2 — — Not published
01430Ashburnham 6,481555 0–2 — — Not published
01436Baldwinville 3,720490 0–2 — — Not published
01438East Templeton 330222 0–2 — — Not published
01441Westminster —700 0–2 — — Not published
01451Harvard 5,487810 0–2 — — Not published
01452Hubbardston 4,371331 0–2 — — Not published
01462Lunenburg 11,9192,172 0–2 — — Not published
01467Still River —4 0–2 — — Not published
01468Templeton 4,183334 0–2 — — Not published
01473Westminster 8,3741,530 0–2 — — Not published
01475Winchendon 10,2651,083 0–2 — — Not published
01501Auburn 16,87712,145 0–2 — — Not published
01503Berlin 3,378479 0–2 — — Not published
01504Blackstone 9,255775 0–2 — — Not published
01505Boylston 4,9481,196 0–2 — — Not published
01506Brookfield 3,460304 0–2 — — Not published
01507Charlton 13,4352,770 0–2 — — Not published
01508Charlton City —334 0–2 — — Not published
01509Charlton Depot —8 0–2 — — Not published
01515East Brookfield 2,166384 0–2 — — Not published
01516Douglas 9,376842 0–2 — — Not published
01518Fiskdale 2,598612 0–2 — — Not published
01519Grafton 8,058937 0–2 — — Not published
01520Holden 16,9122,767 0–2 — — Not published
01522Jefferson 3,152159 0–2 — — Not published
01523Lancaster 8,6061,658 0–2 — — Not published
01524Leicester 6,3271,128 0–2 — — Not published
01525Linwood 082 0–2 — — Not published
01526Manchaug —44 0–2 — — Not published
01527Millbury 13,9614,454 0–2 — — Not published
01529Millville 3,160144 0–2 — — Not published
01531New Braintree 97350 0–2 — — Not published
01532Northborough 15,7507,576 0–2 — — Not published
01534Northbridge 6,230840 0–2 — — Not published
01535North Brookfield 4,760896 0–2 — — Not published
01536North Grafton 6,8602,374 0–2 — — Not published
01537North Oxford 2,278954 0–2 — — Not published
01538North Uxbridge —57 0–2 — — Not published
01540Oxford 10,9794,573 0–2 — — Not published
01541Princeton 3,5291,085 0–2 — — Not published
01542Rochdale 2,615527 0–2 — — Not published
01543Rutland 9,3531,057 0–2 — — Not published
01560South Grafton 4,984559 0–2 — — Not published
01561South Lancaster 0351 0–2 — — Not published
01562Spencer 12,0082,590 0–2 — — Not published
01564Sterling 8,1832,364 0–2 — — Not published
01568Upton 8,011663 0–2 — — Not published
01569Uxbridge 14,3043,799 0–2 — — Not published
01571Dudley 11,9292,611 0–2 — — Not published
01583West Boylston 7,6064,675 0–2 — — Not published
01585West Brookfield 4,810775 0–2 — — Not published
01588Whitinsville 10,2583,190 0–2 — — Not published
01590Sutton 9,4222,999 0–2 — — Not published
01601Worcester —741 0–2 — — Not published
01602Worcester 27,0922,706 0–2 — — Not published
01606Worcester 22,8449,380 0–2 — — Not published
01607Worcester 8,7064,087 0–2 — — Not published
01611Cherry Valley 2,299249 0–2 — — Not published
01612Paxton 5,002845 0–2 — — Not published
01613Worcester —187 0–2 — — Not published
01615Worcester —868 0–2 — — Not published
01653Worcester —1,970 0–2 — — Not published
01655Worcester —177 0–2 — — Not published
01740Bolton 5,737996 0–2 — — Not published
01745Fayville 586348 0–2 — — Not published
01747Hopedale 6,0272,097 0–2 — — Not published
01756Mendon 6,3251,455 0–2 — — Not published
01772Southborough 9,9079,819 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Westborough

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Westborough retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Westborough retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Westborough retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Worcester County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 106 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.