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Lancaster County, PA — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 64 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.89× the U.S. rate (between 0.89× and 1.58× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 50 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 36 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Lancaster County grocery stores — 89–158% of the U.S. rate

94 grocery stores are counted in Lancaster County — 1.4 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 89% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 10% between 2015 and 2023 (79 → 87). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 17527 (Gap), 17566 (Quarryville), 17602 (Lancaster) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 17022 (Elizabethtown), 17545 (Manheim), 17512 (Columbia).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 107 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Lancaster County sits at 89% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 36 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 89% and 158% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 17527 and 17566; the lowest measured density is in 17022 and 17545.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
94–194
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (50 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.4
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.89×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
107
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
558,059
50 ZIPs with data
Workers
236,033
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
563,293
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.9%
+10,459 people
Net migration 2024
+1,713
international +2,954, domestic −1,241
Jobs located here
251,793
LODES 2022, +0.9% since 2019

Lancaster County had an estimated 563,293 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.9% more than in 2020 (+10,459). In the latest year it gained 3,119 people: births minus deaths +1,401, international migration +2,954, domestic migration −1,241. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

251,793 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.9% since 2019), and 256,745 employed residents lived there (−0.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
17547 Marietta
+24.8%
17601 Lancaster
+7.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 10% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Lancaster County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

79
2015
90
2018
95
2020
95
2021
95
2022
87
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
17527 Gap
244%
17566 Quarryville
176%
17602 Lancaster
157%
17522 Ephrata
154%
17517 Denver
141%
17552 Mount Joy
138%
17543 Lititz
127%
17557 New Holland
124%
17601 Lancaster
100%
17603 Lancaster
96%
17512 Columbia
96%
17545 Manheim
69%
17022 Elizabethtown
53%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
17022 Elizabethtown
53%
17545 Manheim
69%
17512 Columbia
96%
17603 Lancaster
96%
17601 Lancaster
100%
17557 New Holland
124%
17543 Lititz
127%
17552 Mount Joy
138%
17517 Denver
141%
17522 Ephrata
154%
17602 Lancaster
157%
17566 Quarryville
176%
17527 Gap
244%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
17507Bowmansville Employment hub 64499 0–2 —
17570Rheems Employment hub 176398 0–2 —
17576Smoketown Employment hub 103339 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
17572Ronks 3,6431,891 4 8.7 561% Very high density
17527Gap 6,0943,619 3 3.8 244% High density
17566Quarryville 12,6033,992 4 2.7 176% High density
17602Lancaster 52,21718,141 15 2.4 157% High density
17522Ephrata 33,85215,910 10 2.4 154% High density
17517Denver 14,6867,216 4 2.2 141% Above average
17552Mount Joy 19,7617,050 5 2.1 138% Above average
17543Lititz 45,91219,486 11 2.0 127% Above average
17557New Holland 15,05511,316 4 1.9 124% Above average
17601Lancaster 56,38255,145 13 1.5 100% Below average
17603Lancaster 67,57126,331 12 1.5 96% Below average
17512Columbia 18,1484,099 3 1.5 96% Below average
17545Manheim 23,5568,973 3 1.1 69% Below average
17022Elizabethtown 31,9089,638 3 0.8 53% Below average
17501Akron 4,614935 0–2 — — Not published
17502Bainbridge 2,485426 0–2 — — Not published
17503Bart —65 0–2 — — Not published
17505Bird In Hand 2,3581,252 0–2 — — Not published
17506Blue Ball 469246 0–2 — — Not published
17507Bowmansville 64499 0–2 — — Not published
17508Brownstown 1,125550 0–2 — — Not published
17509Christiana 5,135879 0–2 — — Not published
17516Conestoga 5,1801,213 0–2 — — Not published
17518Drumore 1,36089 0–2 — — Not published
17519East Earl 7,1273,129 0–2 — — Not published
17520East Petersburg 5,0403,663 0–2 — — Not published
17521Elm —26 0–2 — — Not published
17528Goodville —41 0–2 — — Not published
17529Gordonville 4,8261,538 0–2 — — Not published
17532Holtwood 3,328416 0–2 — — Not published
17534Intercourse 0683 0–2 — — Not published
17535Kinzers 3,042923 0–2 — — Not published
17536Kirkwood 3,452316 0–2 — — Not published
17537Lampeter —31 0–2 — — Not published
17538Landisville 7,3142,384 0–2 — — Not published
17540Leola 10,7286,170 0–2 — — Not published
17547Marietta 9,2102,264 0–2 — — Not published
17549Martindale —42 0–2 — — Not published
17550Maytown 313107 0–2 — — Not published
17551Millersville 11,753916 0–2 — — Not published
17554Mountville 7,4532,711 0–2 — — Not published
17555Narvon 7,2511,089 0–2 — — Not published
17560New Providence 5,460326 0–2 — — Not published
17562Paradise 4,3731,582 0–2 — — Not published
17563Peach Bottom 3,952401 0–2 — — Not published
17565Pequea 2,523148 0–2 — — Not published
17567Reamstown —627 0–2 — — Not published
17568Refton 033 0–2 — — Not published
17569Reinholds 7,323651 0–2 — — Not published
17570Rheems 176398 0–2 — — Not published
17576Smoketown 103339 0–2 — — Not published
17578Stevens 7,5041,405 0–2 — — Not published
17579Strasburg 6,8751,305 0–2 — — Not published
17580Talmage —19 0–2 — — Not published
17581Terre Hill 180248 0–2 — — Not published
17582Washington Boro 1,702240 0–2 — — Not published
17584Willow Street 11,6463,998 0–2 — — Not published
17585Witmer —19 0–2 — — Not published
17604Lancaster —11,243 0–2 — — Not published
17605Lancaster —316 0–2 — — Not published
17606Lancaster 40494 0–2 — — Not published
17607Lancaster —74 0–2 — — Not published
17608Lancaster —475 0–2 — — Not published
19501Adamstown 823376 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lancaster

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lancaster retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lancaster retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lancaster retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lancaster County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 107 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.