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Shelby County, TN — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 60 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.79× the U.S. rate (between 0.79× and 0.91× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 35 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 11 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Shelby County grocery stores — 79–91% of the U.S. rate

140 grocery stores are counted in Shelby County — 1.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 79% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 13% between 2015 and 2023 (133 → 116). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 38126 (Memphis), 38122 (Memphis), 38114 (Memphis) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 38125 (Memphis), 38016 (Cordova), 38118 (Memphis).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 136 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Shelby County sits at 79% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 11 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 79% and 91% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 38126 and 38122; the lowest measured density is in 38125 and 38016.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
140–210
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (35 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.79×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
136
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
931,943
36 ZIPs with data
Workers
428,809
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
910,530
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−2.1%
−19,258 people
Net migration 2024
−6,963
international +5,341, domestic −12,304
Jobs located here
495,715
LODES 2022, −1.8% since 2019

Shelby County had an estimated 910,530 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.1% fewer than in 2020 (−19,258). In the latest year it lost 3,379 people: births minus deaths +3,613, international migration +5,341, domestic migration −12,304. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

495,715 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.8% since 2019), and 413,908 employed residents lived there (−2.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant increase.

ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
38114 Memphis
−20.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 13% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Shelby County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

133
2015
120
2018
119
2020
117
2021
119
2022
116
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
38126 Memphis
275%
38122 Memphis
222%
38114 Memphis
205%
38104 Memphis
197%
38117 Memphis
193%
38108 Memphis
133%
38107 Memphis
130%
38138 Germantown
109%
38127 Memphis
105%
38111 Memphis
99%
38115 Memphis
98%
38112 Memphis
95%
38134 Memphis
94%
38103 Memphis
93%
38116 Memphis
93%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
38125 Memphis
37%
38016 Cordova
40%
38118 Memphis
45%
38109 Memphis
57%
38018 Cordova
58%
38133 Memphis
59%
38002 Arlington
68%
38053 Millington
68%
38017 Collierville
74%
38128 Memphis
82%
38116 Memphis
93%
38103 Memphis
93%
38134 Memphis
94%
38112 Memphis
95%
38115 Memphis
98%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
38054Millington Employment hub 102259 0–2 —
38132Memphis Destination 302,602 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
38126Memphis 5,9462,116 3 4.3 275% Very high density
38122Memphis 26,0216,000 10 3.4 222% High density
38114Memphis 20,2983,280 7 3.2 205% High density
38104Memphis 22,63420,112 10 3.1 197% High density
38117Memphis 25,77615,171 10 3.0 193% High density
38108Memphis 17,5623,431 4 2.1 133% Above average
38107Memphis 13,9121,953 3 2.0 130% Above average
38138Germantown 25,16720,735 6 1.7 109% Above average
38127Memphis 39,5416,710 7 1.6 105% Above average
38111Memphis 41,9347,260 7 1.5 99% Below average
38115Memphis 38,49114,618 7 1.5 98% Below average
38112Memphis 16,8097,128 3 1.5 95% Below average
38134Memphis 43,94722,107 8 1.5 94% Below average
38103Memphis 14,53426,012 4 1.5 93% Below average
38116Memphis 40,06116,796 7 1.4 93% Below average
38128Memphis 42,16210,083 6 1.3 82% Below average
38017Collierville 56,82625,584 8 1.1 74% Below average
38053Millington 25,3035,868 3 1.1 68% Below average
38002Arlington 43,8827,080 5 1.1 68% Below average
38133Memphis 21,27823,000 3 0.9 59% Below average
38018Cordova 38,52711,621 4 0.9 58% Below average
38109Memphis 42,4526,144 4 0.9 57% Below average
38118Memphis 39,10764,496 5 0.7 45% Far below average
38016Cordova 44,1368,392 3 0.6 40% Far below average
38125Memphis 43,07118,079 3 0.6 37% Far below average
37501Memphis —595 0–2 — — Not published
38014Brunswick —36 0–2 — — Not published
38027Collierville —65 0–2 — — Not published
38028Eads 7,9921,504 0–2 — — Not published
38029Ellendale 039 0–2 — — Not published
38054Millington 102259 0–2 — — Not published
38055Millington —51 0–2 — — Not published
38083Millington —22 0–2 — — Not published
38088Cordova —107 0–2 — — Not published
38101Memphis —9,828 0–2 — — Not published
38105Memphis 5,5348,712 0–2 — — Not published
38106Memphis 20,9626,724 0–2 — — Not published
38113Memphis 02,092 0–2 — — Not published
38119Memphis 23,46420,433 0–2 — — Not published
38120Memphis 13,30916,399 0–2 — — Not published
38124Memphis —60 0–2 — — Not published
38130Memphis —444 0–2 — — Not published
38131Memphis 01,007 0–2 — — Not published
38132Memphis 302,602 0–2 — — Not published
38135Memphis 30,3171,918 0–2 — — Not published
38137Memphis —1,949 0–2 — — Not published
38139Germantown 16,4661,799 0–2 — — Not published
38141Memphis 23,95214,196 0–2 — — Not published
38152Memphis 438487 0–2 — — Not published
38157Memphis —931 0–2 — — Not published
38168Memphis —16 0–2 — — Not published
38173Memphis —49 0–2 — — Not published
38175Memphis —68 0–2 — — Not published
38177Memphis —30 0–2 — — Not published
38181Memphis —60 0–2 — — Not published
38183Germantown —87 0–2 — — Not published
38184Memphis —115 0–2 — — Not published
38186Memphis —35 0–2 — — Not published
38187Memphis —156 0–2 — — Not published
38194Memphis —733 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Memphis

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Memphis retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Memphis retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Memphis retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Shelby County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 136 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.