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Utah County, UT — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 26 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Well below average — 0.31× the U.S. rate (between 0.31× and 0.54× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 17 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 15 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Well below the U.S. rate   Utah County grocery stores — 31–54% of the U.S. rate

41 grocery stores are counted in Utah County — 0.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 31% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 11% between 2015 and 2023 (36 → 32). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 84057 (Orem), 84601 (Provo), 84651 (Payson) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 84043 (Lehi), 84062 (Pleasant Grove), 84604 (Provo).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 51 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Utah County sits at 31% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 31% and 54% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 84057 and 84601; the lowest measured density is in 84043 and 84062.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
41–75
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (17 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.31×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
51
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
701,070
24 ZIPs with data
Workers
275,094
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
747,234
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+12.6%
+83,628 people
Net migration 2024
+13,085
international +8,054, domestic +5,031
Jobs located here
288,675
LODES 2022, +15.5% since 2019

Utah County had an estimated 747,234 residents on July 1, 2024 — 12.6% more than in 2020 (+83,628). In the latest year it gained 21,875 people: births minus deaths +8,724, international migration +8,054, domestic migration +5,031. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

288,675 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+15.5% since 2019), and 320,317 employed residents lived there (+15.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
84005 Eagle Mountain
+67.4%
84045 Saratoga Springs
+57.0%
84653 Salem
+40.1%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
84058 Orem
−14.0%
84057 Orem
−9.2%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 11% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Utah County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

36
2015
35
2018
31
2020
33
2021
32
2022
32
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
84057 Orem
116%
84601 Provo
84%
84651 Payson
79%
84058 Orem
76%
84660 Spanish Fork
46%
84003 American Fork
46%
84604 Provo
45%
84062 Pleasant Grove
34%
84043 Lehi
17%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
84043 Lehi
17%
84062 Pleasant Grove
34%
84604 Provo
45%
84003 American Fork
46%
84660 Spanish Fork
46%
84058 Orem
76%
84651 Payson
79%
84601 Provo
84%
84057 Orem
116%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
84602Provo Destination 2,34023,985 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
84057Orem 36,88115,136 8 1.8 116% Above average
84601Provo 32,33011,605 5 1.3 84% Below average
84651Payson 29,5036,498 4 1.2 79% Below average
84058Orem 35,09913,998 5 1.2 76% Below average
84660Spanish Fork 48,58314,168 4 0.7 46% Far below average
84003American Fork 57,43025,790 5 0.7 46% Far below average
84604Provo 44,70724,375 4 0.7 45% Far below average
84062Pleasant Grove 47,81317,576 3 0.5 34% Far below average
84043Lehi 88,39048,404 3 0.3 17% Far below average
84004Alpine 10,4271,789 0–2 — — Not published
84005Eagle Mountain 52,5303,326 0–2 — — Not published
84013Cedar Valley 558148 0–2 — — Not published
84042Lindon 11,72517,775 0–2 — — Not published
84045Saratoga Springs 45,4294,986 0–2 — — Not published
84059Vineyard 17,6162,568 0–2 — — Not published
84097Orem 22,21712,896 0–2 — — Not published
84602Provo 2,34023,985 0–2 — — Not published
84603Provo —663 0–2 — — Not published
84605Provo —17 0–2 — — Not published
84606Provo 35,69010,154 0–2 — — Not published
84626Elberta 39624 0–2 — — Not published
84633Goshen 83830 0–2 — — Not published
84653Salem 13,0511,635 0–2 — — Not published
84655Santaquin 18,2781,614 0–2 — — Not published
84663Springville 36,20714,121 0–2 — — Not published
84664Mapleton 13,0322,493 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lehi

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lehi retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lehi retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lehi retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Utah County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 51 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.