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Fairfax County, VA — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 59 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.82× the U.S. rate (between 0.82× and 0.94× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 13 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Fairfax County grocery stores — 82–94% of the U.S. rate

186 grocery stores are counted in Fairfax County — 1.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 82% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (173 → 171).

Measured supply density is highest in 22041 (Falls Church), 22044 (Falls Church), 22150 (Springfield) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 22079 (Lorton), 20171 (Herndon), 20191 (Reston).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 184 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Fairfax County sits at 82% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 82% and 94% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 22041 and 22044; the lowest measured density is in 22079 and 20171.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
186–248
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.82×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
184
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,112,020
41 ZIPs with data
Workers
681,997
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,160,925
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.1%
+12,245 people
Net migration 2024
+8,053
international +16,376, domestic −8,323
Jobs located here
662,715
LODES 2022, +3.0% since 2019

Fairfax County had an estimated 1,160,925 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.1% more than in 2020 (+12,245). In the latest year it gained 14,248 people: births minus deaths +6,111, international migration +16,376, domestic migration −8,323. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

662,715 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+3.0% since 2019), and 524,441 employed residents lived there (−1.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
22102 Mc Lean
+13.9%
22180 Vienna
+9.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
22312 Alexandria
−17.8%
22310 Alexandria
−13.1%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 1% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Fairfax County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

173
2015
175
2018
174
2020
169
2021
166
2022
171
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
22041 Falls Church
381%
22044 Falls Church
310%
22150 Springfield
200%
22180 Vienna
172%
22306 Alexandria
165%
20170 Herndon
146%
22151 Springfield
146%
22312 Alexandria
138%
22003 Annandale
131%
22309 Alexandria
126%
20121 Centreville
125%
22042 Falls Church
109%
22303 Alexandria
105%
22101 Mc Lean
87%
22043 Falls Church
87%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
22079 Lorton
45%
20171 Herndon
46%
20191 Reston
53%
22153 Springfield
54%
22152 Springfield
62%
22031 Fairfax
63%
22033 Fairfax
69%
22315 Alexandria
76%
22310 Alexandria
78%
22015 Burke
81%
22043 Falls Church
87%
22101 Mc Lean
87%
22303 Alexandria
105%
22042 Falls Church
109%
20121 Centreville
125%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
20151Chantilly Employment hub 22,61064,615 6 70%
20190Reston Employment hub 22,01254,036 3 39%
22102Mc Lean Employment hub 29,184107,031 3 23%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
22041Falls Church 29,1839,087 20 5.9 381% Very high density
22044Falls Church 13,9965,157 8 4.8 310% Very high density
22150Springfield 27,95521,286 12 3.1 200% High density
22180Vienna 26,56814,186 9 2.7 172% High density
22306Alexandria 30,6028,836 9 2.6 165% High density
20170Herndon 43,86626,652 13 2.3 146% Above average
22151Springfield 17,01710,107 5 2.3 146% Above average
22312Alexandria 26,76811,802 7 2.1 138% Above average
22003Annandale 57,75512,135 13 2.0 131% Above average
22309Alexandria 34,3162,691 7 2.0 126% Above average
20121Centreville 27,7886,063 6 1.9 125% Above average
22042Falls Church 35,48334,894 9 1.7 109% Above average
22303Alexandria 16,9222,944 3 1.6 105% Above average
22101Mc Lean 30,95311,964 5 1.4 87% Below average
22043Falls Church 25,7507,905 4 1.3 87% Below average
22015Burke 44,6476,121 6 1.3 81% Below average
22310Alexandria 28,1369,840 4 1.2 78% Below average
22315Alexandria 30,4046,809 4 1.2 76% Below average
20151Chantilly 22,61064,615 6 1.1 70% Below average
22033Fairfax 39,52633,212 6 1.1 69% Below average
22031Fairfax 37,27627,080 5 1.0 63% Below average
22152Springfield 28,8144,116 3 1.0 62% Below average
22153Springfield 32,6646,195 3 0.8 54% Below average
20191Reston 31,01135,121 4 0.8 53% Below average
20171Herndon 51,28663,865 6 0.7 46% Far below average
22079Lorton 35,28414,493 3 0.7 45% Far below average
20190Reston 22,01254,036 3 0.6 39% Far below average
22102Mc Lean 29,184107,031 3 0.4 23% Far below average
20120Centreville 42,8965,236 0–2 — — Not published
20122Centreville —111 0–2 — — Not published
20124Clifton 14,3752,302 0–2 — — Not published
20153Chantilly —200 0–2 — — Not published
20172Herndon —16 0–2 — — Not published
20192Herndon —59 0–2 — — Not published
20194Reston 12,2751,504 0–2 — — Not published
20195Reston —111 0–2 — — Not published
20196Reston —80 0–2 — — Not published
22009Burke —26 0–2 — — Not published
22027Dunn Loring 1,939596 0–2 — — Not published
22032Fairfax 29,2403,804 0–2 — — Not published
22035Fairfax 0143 0–2 — — Not published
22037Fairfax —79 0–2 — — Not published
22039Fairfax Station 19,6262,613 0–2 — — Not published
22060Fort Belvoir 10,6413,112 0–2 — — Not published
22066Great Falls 17,1853,285 0–2 — — Not published
22103West Mclean —27 0–2 — — Not published
22106Mc Lean —13 0–2 — — Not published
22107Mc Lean —104 0–2 — — Not published
22116Merrifield —314 0–2 — — Not published
22121Mount Vernon —660 0–2 — — Not published
22122Newington —588 0–2 — — Not published
22124Oakton 18,0914,075 0–2 — — Not published
22181Vienna 15,760711 0–2 — — Not published
22182Vienna 27,78333,928 0–2 — — Not published
22183Vienna —49 0–2 — — Not published
22185Vienna —1,654 0–2 — — Not published
22199Lorton —18 0–2 — — Not published
22307Alexandria 10,3431,407 0–2 — — Not published
22308Alexandria 14,0901,181 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Mc Lean

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Mc Lean retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Mc Lean retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Mc Lean retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Fairfax County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 184 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.