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Dane County, WI — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 45 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.56× the U.S. rate (between 0.56× and 0.99× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 35 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 24 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Dane County grocery stores — 56–99% of the U.S. rate

63 grocery stores are counted in Dane County — 0.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 56% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 11% between 2015 and 2023 (57 → 63). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 53719 (Madison), 53716 (Madison), 53705 (Madison) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 53562 (Middleton), 53593 (Verona), 53703 (Madison).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 79 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Dane County sits at 56% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 24 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 56% and 99% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 53719 and 53716; the lowest measured density is in 53562 and 53593.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
63–133
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (35 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.56×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
79
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
571,119
34 ZIPs with data
Workers
294,881
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
588,347
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+4.6%
+25,727 people
Net migration 2024
+6,898
international +5,922, domestic +976
Jobs located here
356,900
LODES 2022, +0.4% since 2019

Dane County had an estimated 588,347 residents on July 1, 2024 — 4.6% more than in 2020 (+25,727). In the latest year it gained 8,608 people: births minus deaths +1,683, international migration +5,922, domestic migration +976. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

356,900 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.4% since 2019), and 287,690 employed residents lived there (−1.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
53598 Windsor
+53.9%
53593 Verona
+31.3%
53718 Madison
+28.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
53706 Madison
−35.1%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 11% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Dane County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

57
2015
58
2018
60
2020
61
2021
64
2022
63
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
53719 Madison
192%
53716 Madison
142%
53705 Madison
102%
53704 Madison
101%
53590 Sun Prairie
98%
53715 Madison
91%
53711 Madison
73%
53703 Madison
63%
53593 Verona
61%
53562 Middleton
46%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
53562 Middleton
46%
53593 Verona
61%
53703 Madison
63%
53711 Madison
73%
53715 Madison
91%
53590 Sun Prairie
98%
53704 Madison
101%
53705 Madison
102%
53716 Madison
142%
53719 Madison
192%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
53719Madison 34,11525,570 14 3.0 192% High density
53716Madison 18,5968,007 5 2.2 142% Above average
53705Madison 25,01712,941 5 1.6 102% Above average
53704Madison 46,73020,666 9 1.6 101% Above average
53590Sun Prairie 45,60214,145 8 1.5 98% Below average
53715Madison 15,97410,649 3 1.4 91% Below average
53711Madison 51,27920,046 7 1.1 73% Below average
53703Madison 37,65927,487 5 1.0 63% Below average
53593Verona 31,08121,591 4 1.0 61% Below average
53562Middleton 29,79023,576 3 0.7 46% Far below average
53508Belleville 5,6541,725 0–2 — — Not published
53515Black Earth 2,647412 0–2 — — Not published
53517Blue Mounds 1,799541 0–2 — — Not published
53523Cambridge 5,074862 0–2 — — Not published
53527Cottage Grove 11,9244,548 0–2 — — Not published
53528Cross Plains 6,2631,165 0–2 — — Not published
53529Dane 2,611728 0–2 — — Not published
53531Deerfield 4,4301,226 0–2 — — Not published
53532Deforest 16,5147,516 0–2 — — Not published
53558Mcfarland 13,1642,767 0–2 — — Not published
53559Marshall 6,110454 0–2 — — Not published
53560Mazomanie 3,4161,211 0–2 — — Not published
53571Morrisonville 3678 0–2 — — Not published
53572Mount Horeb 10,3852,269 0–2 — — Not published
53575Oregon 18,2043,850 0–2 — — Not published
53589Stoughton 19,5507,136 0–2 — — Not published
53596Sun Prairie —1,987 0–2 — — Not published
53597Waunakee 21,4266,178 0–2 — — Not published
53598Windsor 4,1763,287 0–2 — — Not published
53701Madison —1,258 0–2 — — Not published
53702Madison —135 0–2 — — Not published
53706Madison 3,958202 0–2 — — Not published
53707Madison —364 0–2 — — Not published
53708Madison —678 0–2 — — Not published
53713Madison 24,35122,367 0–2 — — Not published
53714Madison 16,1696,626 0–2 — — Not published
53717Madison 13,05215,617 0–2 — — Not published
53718Madison 18,98918,792 0–2 — — Not published
53725Madison —30 0–2 — — Not published
53726Madison 5,043716 0–2 — — Not published
53744Madison —23 0–2 — — Not published
53783Madison —502 0–2 — — Not published
53784Madison —67 0–2 — — Not published
53791Madison —31 0–2 — — Not published
53792Madison 013,716 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Madison

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Madison retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Madison retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Madison retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Dane County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 79 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.