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Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT — Gyms Saturation

How many gyms exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 32 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Gyms & fitness centers · CrossFit boxes · Boxing, martial arts & dance studios · Recreational sports centers. Counted together because official statistics use one 713940 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.50× the U.S. rate (between 0.50× and 1.24× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 26 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 20 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Naugatuck Valley Planning Region gyms — 50–124% of the U.S. rate

27 gyms are counted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region — 0.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 50% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 13% between 2022 and 2023 (31 → 27). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 06762 (Middlebury), 06484 (Shelton), 06488 (Southbury) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 06010 (Bristol), 06770 (Naugatuck), 06410 (Cheshire).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 50 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Naugatuck Valley Planning Region sits at 50% of the U.S. rate for gyms. 20 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 50% and 124% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 06762 and 06484; the lowest measured density is in 06010 and 06770.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing gyms and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Gyms
27–79
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (26 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.50×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
50
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
455,072
26 ZIPs with data
Workers
143,457
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
462,220
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.9%
+13,165 people
Net migration 2024
+4,512
international +3,410, domestic +1,102
Jobs located here
159,515
LODES 2022, −4.1% since 2019

Naugatuck Valley Planning Region had an estimated 462,220 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.9% more than in 2020 (+13,165). In the latest year it gained 4,611 people: births minus deaths +115, international migration +3,410, domestic migration +1,102. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

159,515 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.1% since 2019), and 216,658 employed residents lived there (−1.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06704 Waterbury
+26.2%
06401 Ansonia
+3.2%
06798 Woodbury
+2.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06716 Wolcott
−3.0%
06712 Prospect
−2.1%
06478 Oxford
−0.7%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. NES 2024 does not publish fitness and recreational sports centers (NAICS 71394); only the broader recreation group (7139) is available.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more gyms in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 13% since 2022

Number of gyms in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region across 2022–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

31
2022
27
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06762 Middlebury
299%
06484 Shelton
139%
06488 Southbury
127%
06410 Cheshire
107%
06770 Naugatuck
84%
06010 Bristol
82%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06010 Bristol
82%
06770 Naugatuck
84%
06410 Cheshire
107%
06488 Southbury
127%
06484 Shelton
139%
06762 Middlebury
299%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few gyms may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = gyms per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGyms Per 10kIndexStatus
06762Middlebury 7,8073,906 3 3.1 299% Very high density
06484Shelton 41,88928,042 8 1.4 139% Above average
06488Southbury 20,0715,981 3 1.3 127% Above average
06410Cheshire 28,90414,692 4 1.1 107% Above average
06770Naugatuck 31,8235,889 3 0.9 84% Below average
06010Bristol 61,68418,473 6 0.8 82% Below average
06011Bristol —548 0–2 — — Not published
06401Ansonia 19,3152,881 0–2 — — Not published
06403Beacon Falls 6,1471,091 0–2 — — Not published
06418Derby 12,2054,533 0–2 — — Not published
06478Oxford 12,9913,590 0–2 — — Not published
06483Seymour 16,8893,891 0–2 — — Not published
06701Waterbury —290 0–2 — — Not published
06702Waterbury 2,9464,360 0–2 — — Not published
06704Waterbury 31,7133,975 0–2 — — Not published
06705Waterbury 25,2668,280 0–2 — — Not published
06706Waterbury 15,5513,600 0–2 — — Not published
06708Waterbury 29,59410,245 0–2 — — Not published
06710Waterbury 9,942913 0–2 — — Not published
06712Prospect 9,4581,867 0–2 — — Not published
06716Wolcott 16,1132,150 0–2 — — Not published
06720Waterbury —191 0–2 — — Not published
06721Waterbury —132 0–2 — — Not published
06722Waterbury —14 0–2 — — Not published
06751Bethlehem 3,4231,064 0–2 — — Not published
06779Oakville 8,364979 0–2 — — Not published
06781Pequabuck —39 0–2 — — Not published
06782Plymouth 1,978302 0–2 — — Not published
06786Terryville 9,7681,391 0–2 — — Not published
06787Thomaston 7,5092,576 0–2 — — Not published
06795Watertown 13,8897,099 0–2 — — Not published
06798Woodbury 9,8331,687 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Shelton

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Shelton retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Shelton retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Shelton retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Naugatuck Valley Planning Region and gyms

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

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Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 713940 — fitness & recreational sports centers (gyms). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 50 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.