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Clackamas County, OR — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 27 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 2.02× the U.S. rate (between 2.02× and 2.64× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 16 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 13 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Clackamas County nail salons — 202–264% of the U.S. rate

85 nail salons are counted in Clackamas County — 1.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 202% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 42% between 2015 and 2023 (50 → 71). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 97086 (Happy Valley), 97068 (West Linn), 97035 (Lake Oswego) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 97045 (Oregon City), 97222 (Portland), 97013 (Canby).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 85 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Clackamas County sits at 202% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 202% and 264% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 97086 and 97068; the lowest measured density is in 97045 and 97222.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
85–117
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (16 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
2.02×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
85
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
416,428
24 ZIPs with data
Workers
157,792
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
425,857
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.8%
+3,345 people
Net migration 2024
+1,671
international +1,400, domestic +271
Jobs located here
175,078
LODES 2022, +1.1% since 2019

Clackamas County had an estimated 425,857 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.8% more than in 2020 (+3,345). In the latest year it gained 1,461 people: births minus deaths −190, international migration +1,400, domestic migration +271. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

175,078 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+1.1% since 2019), and 196,096 employed residents lived there (−1.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
97023 Estacada
+21.5%
97034 Lake Oswego
+14.3%
97086 Happy Valley
+12.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
98
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$4.0M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$40K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 42% since 2015

Number of nail salons in Clackamas County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

50
2015
65
2018
64
2020
61
2021
65
2022
71
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
97086 Happy Valley
429%
97068 West Linn
392%
97035 Lake Oswego
390%
97070 Wilsonville
283%
97034 Lake Oswego
247%
97055 Sandy
213%
97015 Clackamas
208%
97267 Portland
171%
97013 Canby
164%
97222 Portland
157%
97045 Oregon City
145%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
97045 Oregon City
145%
97222 Portland
157%
97013 Canby
164%
97267 Portland
171%
97015 Clackamas
208%
97055 Sandy
213%
97034 Lake Oswego
247%
97070 Wilsonville
283%
97035 Lake Oswego
390%
97068 West Linn
392%
97086 Happy Valley
429%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
97028Government Camp Employment hub 230822 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
97086Happy Valley 34,5677,709 14 3.6 429% Very high density
97068West Linn 30,1615,615 11 3.3 392% Very high density
97035Lake Oswego 25,91120,656 12 3.3 390% Very high density
97070Wilsonville 26,90220,987 9 2.4 283% Very high density
97034Lake Oswego 21,3315,041 5 2.1 247% High density
97055Sandy 19,7864,694 4 1.8 213% High density
97015Clackamas 24,43330,255 7 1.8 208% High density
97267Portland 31,3116,202 5 1.5 171% High density
97013Canby 24,2938,917 4 1.4 164% High density
97222Portland 36,39816,853 6 1.3 157% High density
97045Oregon City 57,52614,916 8 1.2 145% Above average
97004Beavercreek 4,496526 0–2 — — Not published
97009Boring 8,3362,531 0–2 — — Not published
97011Brightwood 62053 0–2 — — Not published
97017Colton 3,427197 0–2 — — Not published
97022Eagle Creek 3,319424 0–2 — — Not published
97023Estacada 12,1111,704 0–2 — — Not published
97027Gladstone 12,3473,450 0–2 — — Not published
97028Government Camp 230822 0–2 — — Not published
97036Marylhurst —68 0–2 — — Not published
97038Molalla 16,4403,298 0–2 — — Not published
97042Mulino 3,361631 0–2 — — Not published
97049Rhododendron 1,896109 0–2 — — Not published
97067Welches 2,125498 0–2 — — Not published
97089Damascus 15,1011,704 0–2 — — Not published
97268Portland —23 0–2 — — Not published
97269Portland —50 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Clackamas

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Clackamas retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Clackamas retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Clackamas retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Clackamas County and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 85 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.