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Erie County, NY — Pharmacies Saturation

How many pharmacies exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 73 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Pharmacies · Drug stores · Community & compounding pharmacies. Counted together because official statistics use one 446110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.82× the U.S. rate (between 0.82× and 1.59× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 53 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 46 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Erie County pharmacies — 82–159% of the U.S. rate

98 pharmacies are counted in Erie County — 0.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 82% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 6% between 2015 and 2023 (94 → 88). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 14031 (Clarence), 14043 (Depew), 14217 (Buffalo) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 14215 (Buffalo), 14225 (Buffalo), 14207 (Buffalo).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 135 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Erie County sits at 82% of the U.S. rate for pharmacies. 46 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 82% and 159% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 14031 and 14043; the lowest measured density is in 14215 and 14225.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing pharmacies and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Pharmacies
98–204
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (53 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.82×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
135
2023 — $110M annual payroll
Residents
948,221
66 ZIPs with data
Workers
414,184
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
950,602
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−0.2%
−1,751 people
Net migration 2024
+2,757
international +5,371, domestic −2,614
Jobs located here
475,018
LODES 2022, −3.6% since 2019

Erie County had an estimated 950,602 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.2% fewer than in 2020 (−1,751). In the latest year it gained 2,216 people: births minus deaths −568, international migration +5,371, domestic migration −2,614. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

475,018 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.6% since 2019), and 429,001 employed residents lived there (−3.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
14212 Buffalo
+24.1%
14228 Buffalo
+16.1%
14086 Lancaster
+9.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
27
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$16.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$615K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more pharmacies in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 6% since 2015

Number of pharmacies in Erie County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

94
2015
91
2018
88
2020
88
2021
89
2022
88
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
14031 Clarence
312%
14043 Depew
281%
14217 Buffalo
262%
14224 Buffalo
182%
14226 Buffalo
159%
14206 Buffalo
150%
14127 Orchard Park
147%
14075 Hamburg
136%
14052 East Aurora
132%
14218 Buffalo
129%
14223 Buffalo
121%
14227 Buffalo
120%
14214 Buffalo
115%
14213 Buffalo
112%
14150 Tonawanda
112%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
14215 Buffalo
82%
14225 Buffalo
83%
14207 Buffalo
94%
14221 Buffalo
98%
14150 Tonawanda
112%
14213 Buffalo
112%
14214 Buffalo
115%
14227 Buffalo
120%
14223 Buffalo
121%
14218 Buffalo
129%
14052 East Aurora
132%
14075 Hamburg
136%
14127 Orchard Park
147%
14206 Buffalo
150%
14226 Buffalo
159%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few pharmacies may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersPharmaciesIndex
14202Buffalo Employment hub 3,86221,925 3 196%
14134Sardinia Employment hub 32154 0–2 —
14203Buffalo Employment hub 2,42424,197 0–2 —
14260Buffalo Employment hub 9242,400 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = pharmacies per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersPharmacies Per 10kIndexStatus
14031Clarence 9,8855,061 4 3.2 312% Very high density
14043Depew 25,09811,786 9 2.9 281% Very high density
14217Buffalo 22,4716,869 7 2.7 262% Very high density
14202Buffalo 3,86221,925 3 2.0 196% High density
14224Buffalo 41,21913,381 9 1.9 182% High density
14226Buffalo 29,15914,884 6 1.6 159% High density
14206Buffalo 21,6318,431 4 1.5 150% Above average
14127Orchard Park 31,54315,809 6 1.5 147% Above average
14075Hamburg 44,52010,368 7 1.4 136% Above average
14052East Aurora 17,5149,140 3 1.4 132% Above average
14218Buffalo 20,3124,329 3 1.3 129% Above average
14223Buffalo 22,6112,922 3 1.2 121% Above average
14227Buffalo 20,6217,177 3 1.2 120% Above average
14214Buffalo 21,3148,133 3 1.2 115% Above average
14213Buffalo 24,1073,563 3 1.2 112% Above average
14150Tonawanda 41,26021,679 6 1.2 112% Above average
14221Buffalo 55,25546,958 8 1.0 98% Below average
14207Buffalo 26,3279,331 3 1.0 94% Below average
14225Buffalo 33,62026,107 4 0.9 83% Below average
14215Buffalo 42,5249,465 4 0.8 82% Below average
14001Akron 8,9372,610 0–2 — — Not published
14004Alden 11,3961,898 0–2 — — Not published
14006Angola 9,260949 0–2 — — Not published
14010Athol Springs —98 0–2 — — Not published
14025Boston 3,243257 0–2 — — Not published
14026Bowmansville 617496 0–2 — — Not published
14027Brant 142152 0–2 — — Not published
14030Chaffee 2,067573 0–2 — — Not published
14032Clarence Center 10,2221,329 0–2 — — Not published
14033Colden 1,539202 0–2 — — Not published
14034Collins 2,086267 0–2 — — Not published
14035Collins Center 1522 0–2 — — Not published
14047Derby 6,0131,089 0–2 — — Not published
14051East Amherst 19,7393,441 0–2 — — Not published
14055East Concord 1,41856 0–2 — — Not published
14057Eden 7,972842 0–2 — — Not published
14059Elma 9,1383,753 0–2 — — Not published
14061Farnham 9333 0–2 — — Not published
14068Getzville 8,63612,031 0–2 — — Not published
14069Glenwood 443255 0–2 — — Not published
14072Grand Island 21,4886,653 0–2 — — Not published
14080Holland 4,444627 0–2 — — Not published
14085Lake View 8,531327 0–2 — — Not published
14086Lancaster 35,63511,976 0–2 — — Not published
14091Lawtons 1,31622 0–2 — — Not published
14102Marilla 1,85650 0–2 — — Not published
14110North Boston —77 0–2 — — Not published
14111North Collins 3,186641 0–2 — — Not published
14134Sardinia 32154 0–2 — — Not published
14139South Wales 2,113249 0–2 — — Not published
14141Springville 7,6033,046 0–2 — — Not published
14151Tonawanda —115 0–2 — — Not published
14169Wales Center 7777 0–2 — — Not published
14170West Falls 2,292296 0–2 — — Not published
14201Buffalo 12,3694,039 0–2 — — Not published
14203Buffalo 2,42424,197 0–2 — — Not published
14204Buffalo 7,9324,580 0–2 — — Not published
14205Buffalo —108 0–2 — — Not published
14208Buffalo 12,5721,988 0–2 — — Not published
14209Buffalo 8,3135,573 0–2 — — Not published
14210Buffalo 15,56312,568 0–2 — — Not published
14211Buffalo 24,6633,621 0–2 — — Not published
14212Buffalo 13,2992,550 0–2 — — Not published
14216Buffalo 22,8495,522 0–2 — — Not published
14219Buffalo 10,6527,159 0–2 — — Not published
14220Buffalo 24,4287,962 0–2 — — Not published
14222Buffalo 15,3113,481 0–2 — — Not published
14228Buffalo 25,35015,784 0–2 — — Not published
14231Buffalo —235 0–2 — — Not published
14240Buffalo —1,358 0–2 — — Not published
14260Buffalo 9242,400 0–2 — — Not published
14261Buffalo 5,0331,089 0–2 — — Not published
14263Buffalo —1,095 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Buffalo

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Buffalo retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Buffalo retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Buffalo retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Erie County and pharmacies

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 446110 — pharmacies & drug stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 135 establishments and $110M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.