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Erie County, PA — Pharmacies Saturation

How many pharmacies exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 37 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Pharmacies · Drug stores · Community & compounding pharmacies. Counted together because official statistics use one 446110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.33× the U.S. rate (between 0.33× and 1.92× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 34 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 26 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Erie County pharmacies — 33–192% of the U.S. rate

11 pharmacies are counted in Erie County — 0.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 33% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 20% between 2015 and 2023 (5 → 4). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 16508 (Erie), 16505 (Erie), 16503 (Erie) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 16503 (Erie), 16505 (Erie), 16508 (Erie).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 32 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Erie County sits at 33% of the U.S. rate for pharmacies. 26 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 33% and 192% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 16508 and 16505; the lowest measured density is in 16503 and 16505.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing pharmacies and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Pharmacies
11–79
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (34 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.33×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
32
2023 — $21M annual payroll
Residents
267,101
29 ZIPs with data
Workers
102,941
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
267,750
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.1%
−2,989 people
Net migration 2024
+87
international +1,095, domestic −1,008
Jobs located here
119,458
LODES 2022, −2.5% since 2019

Erie County had an estimated 267,750 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.1% fewer than in 2020 (−2,989). In the latest year it lost 453 people: births minus deaths −537, international migration +1,095, domestic migration −1,008. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

119,458 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.5% since 2019), and 118,229 employed residents lived there (−2.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant increase.

ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
16401 Albion
−44.8%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
3
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$75K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$25K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more pharmacies in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 20% since 2015

Number of pharmacies in Erie County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

5
2015
5
2018
4
2020
4
2021
4
2022
4
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
16508 Erie
226%
16505 Erie
193%
16503 Erie
165%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
16503 Erie
165%
16505 Erie
193%
16508 Erie
226%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few pharmacies may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersPharmaciesIndex
16501Erie Employment hub 2,02210,429 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = pharmacies per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersPharmacies Per 10kIndexStatus
16508Erie 14,9584,340 4 2.3 226% High density
16505Erie 15,2709,547 4 2.0 193% High density
16503Erie 15,7533,625 3 1.7 165% High density
16401Albion 3,744474 0–2 — — Not published
16407Corry 10,5253,491 0–2 — — Not published
16410Cranesville 1,931170 0–2 — — Not published
16411East Springfield 1,32596 0–2 — — Not published
16412Edinboro 9,6122,270 0–2 — — Not published
16415Fairview 10,1043,013 0–2 — — Not published
16417Girard 8,5991,696 0–2 — — Not published
16421Harborcreek 2,2891,243 0–2 — — Not published
16423Lake City 3,857903 0–2 — — Not published
16426Mc Kean 3,273461 0–2 — — Not published
16427Mill Village 20422 0–2 — — Not published
16428North East 12,5953,742 0–2 — — Not published
16430North Springfield 14847 0–2 — — Not published
16438Union City 7,4211,013 0–2 — — Not published
16441Waterford 9,1341,749 0–2 — — Not published
16442Wattsburg 3,050130 0–2 — — Not published
16443West Springfield 1,19681 0–2 — — Not published
16501Erie 2,02210,429 0–2 — — Not published
16502Erie 15,9957,561 0–2 — — Not published
16504Erie 15,9312,952 0–2 — — Not published
16506Erie 24,07010,383 0–2 — — Not published
16507Erie 8,5978,330 0–2 — — Not published
16509Erie 28,59515,287 0–2 — — Not published
16510Erie 24,1986,817 0–2 — — Not published
16511Erie 11,7762,184 0–2 — — Not published
16512Erie —207 0–2 — — Not published
16530Erie —3,218 0–2 — — Not published
16531Erie —4,644 0–2 — — Not published
16534Erie —75 0–2 — — Not published
16541Erie —290 0–2 — — Not published
16544Erie —126 0–2 — — Not published
16546Erie 929885 0–2 — — Not published
16550Erie 0661 0–2 — — Not published
16565Erie —2,141 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Erie

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Erie retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Erie retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Erie retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Erie County and pharmacies

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 446110 — pharmacies & drug stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 32 establishments and $21M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.