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Monterey County, CA — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 34 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.20× the U.S. rate (between 1.20× and 1.27× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 16 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 12 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Monterey County restaurants — 120–127% of the U.S. rate

370 restaurants are counted in Monterey County — 7.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 120% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 4% between 2015 and 2023 (382 → 367). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 93940 (Monterey), 93950 (Pacific Grove), 93923 (Carmel) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 93905 (Salinas), 93960 (Soledad), 93930 (King City).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 375 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Monterey County sits at 120% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 12 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 120% and 127% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 93940 and 93950; the lowest measured density is in 93905 and 93960.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
370–402
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (16 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
7.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
1.20×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
375
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
426,948
30 ZIPs with data
Workers
115,284
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
436,251
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.0%
−4,255 people
Net migration 2024
−2,032
international +3,415, domestic −5,447
Jobs located here
170,652
LODES 2022, +0.7% since 2019

Monterey County had an estimated 436,251 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.0% fewer than in 2020 (−4,255). In the latest year it gained 614 people: births minus deaths +2,644, international migration +3,415, domestic migration −5,447. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

170,652 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.7% since 2019), and 175,504 employed residents lived there (+2.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93927 Greenfield
+14.7%
93933 Marina
+10.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93955 Seaside
−6.7%
93940 Monterey
−5.1%
93950 Pacific Grove
−3.8%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
53
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$4.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$89K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 4% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Monterey County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

382
2015
357
2018
344
2020
359
2021
375
2022
367
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93940 Monterey
306%
93950 Pacific Grove
291%
93923 Carmel
218%
93924 Carmel Valley
134%
93901 Salinas
132%
93955 Seaside
125%
95012 Castroville
119%
93907 Salinas
100%
93926 Gonzales
95%
93933 Marina
94%
93906 Salinas
70%
93908 Salinas
56%
93930 King City
51%
93960 Soledad
44%
93905 Salinas
33%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93905 Salinas
33%
93960 Soledad
44%
93930 King City
51%
93908 Salinas
56%
93906 Salinas
70%
93933 Marina
94%
93926 Gonzales
95%
93907 Salinas
100%
95012 Castroville
119%
93955 Seaside
125%
93901 Salinas
132%
93924 Carmel Valley
134%
93923 Carmel
218%
93950 Pacific Grove
291%
93940 Monterey
306%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersRestaurantsIndex
93943Monterey Employment hub 1052 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
93921Carmel By The Sea 2,3222,871 39 103.8 1625% Very high density
95039Moss Landing 948851 4 29.1 456% Very high density
93940Monterey 30,60528,758 88 19.6 306% Very high density
93950Pacific Grove 14,9513,487 31 18.6 291% Very high density
93920Big Sur 1,4641,110 3 14.9 233% High density
93923Carmel 12,5655,085 21 13.9 218% High density
93924Carmel Valley 6,3161,364 6 8.6 134% Above average
93901Salinas 29,72421,261 34 8.4 132% Above average
93955Seaside 32,2667,876 29 8.0 125% Above average
95012Castroville 10,8142,029 9 7.6 119% Above average
93907Salinas 25,1466,215 18 6.4 100% Below average
93926Gonzales 8,7242,255 6 6.1 95% Below average
93933Marina 28,1223,965 18 6.0 94% Below average
93906Salinas 64,1999,743 31 4.5 70% Below average
93908Salinas 12,4503,045 5 3.6 56% Below average
93930King City 17,2432,340 6 3.3 51% Below average
93960Soledad 27,4712,290 8 2.8 44% Far below average
93905Salinas 63,8985,121 14 2.1 33% Far below average
93426Bradley 1,56497 0–2 — — Not published
93450San Ardo 668279 0–2 — — Not published
93902Salinas —411 0–2 — — Not published
93912Salinas —84 0–2 — — Not published
93922Carmel —56 0–2 — — Not published
93925Chualar 1,241229 0–2 — — Not published
93927Greenfield 21,5741,223 0–2 — — Not published
93928Jolon 1,17579 0–2 — — Not published
93932Lockwood 48223 0–2 — — Not published
93942Monterey —108 0–2 — — Not published
93943Monterey 1052 0–2 — — Not published
93944Monterey 2,66568 0–2 — — Not published
93953Pebble Beach 3,6132,778 0–2 — — Not published
93954San Lucas 19130 0–2 — — Not published
93962Spreckels 17439 0–2 — — Not published
95004Aromas 4,363721 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Monterey

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Monterey retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Monterey retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Monterey retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Monterey County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 375 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.