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Jefferson County, KY — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 55 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.93× the U.S. rate (between 0.93× and 0.95× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 26 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 8 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Jefferson County restaurants — 93–95% of the U.S. rate

616 restaurants are counted in Jefferson County — 5.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 93% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (590 → 605).

Measured supply density is highest in 40204 (Louisville), 40206 (Louisville), 40222 (Louisville) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 40211 (Louisville), 40229 (Louisville), 40215 (Louisville).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 750 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Jefferson County sits at 93% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 8 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 93% and 95% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 40204 and 40206; the lowest measured density is in 40211 and 40229.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
616–668
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (26 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
5.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.93×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
750
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
809,701
37 ZIPs with data
Workers
459,852
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
793,881
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.4%
+10,985 people
Net migration 2024
+9,201
international +13,807, domestic −4,606
Jobs located here
490,757
LODES 2022, +0.7% since 2019

Jefferson County had an estimated 793,881 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.4% more than in 2020 (+10,985). In the latest year it gained 10,500 people: births minus deaths +1,325, international migration +13,807, domestic migration −4,606. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

490,757 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.7% since 2019), and 363,460 employed residents lived there (−1.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
40245 Louisville
+15.4%
40243 Louisville
+14.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
211
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$10.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$50K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 3% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Jefferson County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

590
2015
633
2018
594
2020
589
2021
600
2022
605
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
40204 Louisville
320%
40206 Louisville
269%
40222 Louisville
234%
40243 Louisville
233%
40217 Louisville
216%
40207 Louisville
190%
40205 Louisville
155%
40059 Prospect
137%
40241 Louisville
113%
40219 Louisville
91%
40220 Louisville
83%
40299 Louisville
75%
40223 Louisville
72%
40208 Louisville
68%
40291 Louisville
68%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
40211 Louisville
27%
40229 Louisville
28%
40215 Louisville
29%
40258 Louisville
38%
40203 Louisville
43%
40228 Louisville
47%
40245 Louisville
49%
40272 Louisville
50%
40216 Louisville
51%
40214 Louisville
55%
40218 Louisville
61%
40291 Louisville
68%
40208 Louisville
68%
40223 Louisville
72%
40299 Louisville
75%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersRestaurantsIndex
40202Louisville Employment hub 7,26152,725 51 237%
40209Louisville Employment hub 6395,515 3 138%
40213Louisville Employment hub 16,05451,794 18 67%
40280Louisville Employment hub 182843 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
40204Louisville 14,0347,104 36 20.5 320% Very high density
40206Louisville 20,16113,222 46 17.2 269% Very high density
40202Louisville 7,26152,725 51 15.2 237% High density
40222Louisville 21,47020,053 47 14.9 234% High density
40243Louisville 12,0028,262 24 14.9 233% High density
40217Louisville 11,6635,685 20 13.8 216% High density
40207Louisville 28,90324,457 50 12.2 190% High density
40205Louisville 24,6649,094 29 9.9 155% High density
40209Louisville 6395,515 3 8.8 138% Above average
40059Prospect 20,8923,862 20 8.8 137% Above average
40241Louisville 30,69621,693 30 7.2 113% Above average
40219Louisville 39,90919,727 29 5.8 91% Below average
40220Louisville 35,0789,424 21 5.3 83% Below average
40299Louisville 42,20740,713 30 4.8 75% Below average
40223Louisville 22,79841,958 20 4.6 72% Below average
40208Louisville 15,6055,529 8 4.4 68% Below average
40291Louisville 41,2224,971 19 4.3 68% Below average
40213Louisville 16,05451,794 18 4.3 67% Below average
40218Louisville 33,73619,818 17 3.9 61% Below average
40214Louisville 45,40511,903 18 3.5 55% Below average
40216Louisville 44,04710,317 16 3.3 51% Below average
40272Louisville 38,2894,867 13 3.2 50% Far below average
40245Louisville 39,83517,109 15 3.1 49% Far below average
40228Louisville 18,0853,765 6 3.0 47% Far below average
40203Louisville 17,7428,514 6 2.7 43% Far below average
40258Louisville 26,84112,415 8 2.4 38% Far below average
40215Louisville 20,5321,876 4 1.9 29% Far below average
40229Louisville 41,2998,463 8 1.8 28% Far below average
40211Louisville 20,4074,888 4 1.8 27% Far below average
40018Eastwood —55 0–2 — — Not published
40023Fisherville 6,870477 0–2 — — Not published
40025Glenview 56515 0–2 — — Not published
40027Harrods Creek —85 0–2 — — Not published
40041Masonic Home 564345 0–2 — — Not published
40118Fairdale 10,6971,313 0–2 — — Not published
40201Louisville —270 0–2 — — Not published
40210Louisville 13,5184,456 0–2 — — Not published
40212Louisville 14,6611,319 0–2 — — Not published
40221Louisville 037 0–2 — — Not published
40225Louisville —10,383 0–2 — — Not published
40232Louisville —1,029 0–2 — — Not published
40233Louisville —189 0–2 — — Not published
40242Louisville 11,1681,361 0–2 — — Not published
40250Louisville —45 0–2 — — Not published
40252Louisville —24 0–2 — — Not published
40253Louisville —90 0–2 — — Not published
40255Louisville —9 0–2 — — Not published
40256Louisville —102 0–2 — — Not published
40257Louisville —72 0–2 — — Not published
40259Louisville —264 0–2 — — Not published
40268Louisville —18 0–2 — — Not published
40269Louisville —98 0–2 — — Not published
40270Louisville —107 0–2 — — Not published
40280Louisville 182843 0–2 — — Not published
40292Louisville —489 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Louisville

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Louisville retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Louisville retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Louisville retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Jefferson County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 750 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.