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Greene County, MO — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 21 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.06× the U.S. rate (between 1.06× and 1.11× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 10 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 6 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Greene County restaurants — 106–111% of the U.S. rate

262 restaurants are counted in Greene County — 6.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 106% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 6% between 2015 and 2023 (244 → 258). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 65806 (Springfield), 65804 (Springfield), 65807 (Springfield) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 65802 (Springfield), 65757 (Strafford), 65809 (Springfield).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 280 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Greene County sits at 106% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 6 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 106% and 111% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 65806 and 65804; the lowest measured density is in 65802 and 65757.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
262–282
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (10 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
1.06×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
280
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
302,944
17 ZIPs with data
Workers
165,857
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
307,942
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.9%
+8,610 people
Net migration 2024
+2,586
international +1,048, domestic +1,538
Jobs located here
179,527
LODES 2022, +1.6% since 2019

Greene County had an estimated 307,942 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.9% more than in 2020 (+8,610). In the latest year it gained 2,812 people: births minus deaths +198, international migration +1,048, domestic migration +1,538. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

179,527 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+1.6% since 2019), and 125,911 employed residents lived there (+0.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
65619 Brookline
+27.7%
65738 Republic
+10.5%
65804 Springfield
+9.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
37
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$65K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 6% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Greene County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

244
2015
265
2018
255
2020
264
2021
271
2022
258
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
65806 Springfield
276%
65804 Springfield
212%
65807 Springfield
135%
65648 Fair Grove
103%
65738 Republic
94%
65803 Springfield
78%
65810 Springfield
78%
65781 Willard
62%
65809 Springfield
60%
65757 Strafford
60%
65802 Springfield
39%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
65802 Springfield
39%
65757 Strafford
60%
65809 Springfield
60%
65781 Willard
62%
65810 Springfield
78%
65803 Springfield
78%
65738 Republic
94%
65648 Fair Grove
103%
65807 Springfield
135%
65804 Springfield
212%
65806 Springfield
276%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
65806Springfield 13,6928,919 32 17.6 276% Very high density
65804Springfield 40,93536,462 80 13.5 212% High density
65807Springfield 56,65928,531 61 8.6 135% Above average
65648Fair Grove 5,861398 4 6.6 103% Above average
65738Republic 21,2833,858 14 6.0 94% Below average
65803Springfield 42,88230,504 29 5.0 78% Below average
65810Springfield 22,1373,886 12 5.0 78% Below average
65781Willard 9,692829 4 4.0 62% Below average
65809Springfield 11,3843,182 5 3.9 60% Below average
65757Strafford 8,5843,701 4 3.8 60% Below average
65802Springfield 46,73942,484 17 2.5 39% Far below average
65604Ash Grove 3,873420 0–2 — — Not published
65612Bois D Arc 2,057190 0–2 — — Not published
65619Brookline 9,4531,407 0–2 — — Not published
65725Pleasant Hope 2,501615 0–2 — — Not published
65770Walnut Grove 2,599129 0–2 — — Not published
65801Springfield 0968 0–2 — — Not published
65808Springfield —684 0–2 — — Not published
65814Springfield —80 0–2 — — Not published
65897Springfield 2,613342 0–2 — — Not published
65898Springfield —1,995 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Springfield

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Springfield retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Springfield retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Springfield retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Greene County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 280 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.