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Nassau County, NY — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 78 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.28× the U.S. rate (between 1.28× and 1.30× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 18 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 9 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Nassau County restaurants — 128–130% of the U.S. rate

1,392 restaurants are counted in Nassau County — 8.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 128% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 6% between 2015 and 2023 (1,301 → 1,383). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11558 (Island Park), 11579 (Sea Cliff), 11570 (Rockville Centre) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11565 (Malverne), 11096 (Inwood), 11581 (Valley Stream).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 1,334 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Nassau County sits at 128% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 9 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 128% and 130% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11558 and 11579; the lowest measured density is in 11565 and 11096.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
1,392–1,428
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (18 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
8.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
1.28×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
1,334
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,401,387
69 ZIPs with data
Workers
598,752
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,392,438
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+1,854 people
Net migration 2024
+3,230
international +7,655, domestic −4,425
Jobs located here
638,252
LODES 2022, −1.4% since 2019

Nassau County had an estimated 1,392,438 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+1,854). In the latest year it gained 6,386 people: births minus deaths +3,092, international migration +7,655, domestic migration −4,425. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

638,252 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.4% since 2019), and 692,699 employed residents lived there (−0.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11516 Cedarhurst
+23.6%
11501 Mineola
+10.3%
11550 Hempstead
+5.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11001 Floral Park
−9.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
284
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$21.3M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$75K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 6% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Nassau County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

1,301
2015
1,369
2018
1,289
2020
1,314
2021
1,348
2022
1,383
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11558 Island Park
323%
11579 Sea Cliff
286%
11570 Rockville Centre
275%
11771 Oyster Bay
253%
11576 Roslyn
252%
11596 Williston Park
215%
11561 Long Beach
200%
11557 Hewlett
196%
11801 Hicksville
195%
11021 Great Neck
188%
11753 Jericho
183%
11559 Lawrence
177%
11735 Farmingdale
173%
11050 Port Washington
163%
11520 Freeport
160%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11565 Malverne
50%
11096 Inwood
51%
11581 Valley Stream
55%
11553 Uniondale
57%
11003 Elmont
62%
11507 Albertson
62%
11510 Baldwin
66%
11756 Levittown
73%
11552 West Hempstead
80%
11783 Seaford
81%
11709 Bayville
89%
11023 Great Neck
89%
11580 Valley Stream
90%
11803 Plainview
92%
11758 Massapequa
94%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersRestaurantsIndex
11042New Hyde Park Destination 14125,823 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
11569Point Lookout 945209 6 57.2 895% Very high density
11514Carle Place 4,5444,096 21 31.9 499% Very high density
11509Atlantic Beach 1,790497 5 24.5 384% Very high density
11558Island Park 8,4542,504 20 20.6 323% Very high density
11732East Norwich 3,228688 7 19.6 307% Very high density
11579Sea Cliff 5,033891 10 18.3 286% Very high density
11570Rockville Centre 28,90816,228 65 17.6 275% Very high density
11771Oyster Bay 10,9082,905 20 16.2 253% Very high density
11576Roslyn 12,2818,926 27 16.1 252% Very high density
11548Greenvale 2,2614,259 7 15.9 250% High density
11596Williston Park 10,5162,229 16 13.8 215% High density
11561Long Beach 38,7085,564 53 12.8 200% High density
11557Hewlett 8,5043,736 13 12.5 196% High density
11801Hicksville 41,58525,734 68 12.5 195% High density
11021Great Neck 19,78315,316 33 12.0 188% High density
11753Jericho 12,43512,846 22 11.7 183% High density
11559Lawrence 8,8785,252 13 11.3 177% High density
11735Farmingdale 32,02835,370 55 11.1 173% High density
11050Port Washington 32,79415,110 42 10.4 163% High density
11520Freeport 44,91013,634 53 10.2 160% High density
11530Garden City 27,93935,781 46 10.0 157% High density
11542Glen Cove 28,9658,300 33 10.0 156% High density
11563Lynbrook 22,8998,125 26 9.6 151% High density
11762Massapequa Park 22,4873,641 23 9.5 148% Above average
11010Franklin Square 25,6044,241 26 9.4 147% Above average
11710Bellmore 34,8349,704 37 9.3 146% Above average
11797Woodbury 9,40213,628 15 9.3 145% Above average
11590Westbury 47,59924,032 55 9.2 144% Above average
11501Mineola 21,64115,644 27 9.2 143% Above average
11560Locust Valley 7,6962,197 8 9.1 142% Above average
11001Floral Park 25,4938,936 25 8.3 131% Above average
11516Cedarhurst 9,1123,466 9 8.3 130% Above average
11518East Rockaway 10,1491,450 9 8.3 130% Above average
11566Merrick 34,7417,989 31 8.0 125% Above average
11791Syosset 25,52016,204 26 7.7 121% Above average
11714Bethpage 22,69514,021 22 7.4 116% Above average
11793Wantagh 32,3496,145 26 7.3 115% Above average
11568Old Westbury 4,1442,787 4 7.2 113% Above average
11040New Hyde Park 41,98828,601 39 6.9 108% Above average
11554East Meadow 36,82110,500 29 6.9 108% Above average
11545Glen Head 12,1724,723 10 6.9 108% Above average
11577Roslyn Heights 13,0773,488 10 6.7 106% Above average
11030Manhasset 18,05124,267 20 6.6 104% Above average
11572Oceanside 30,43611,638 24 6.6 104% Above average
11550Hempstead 60,96013,262 43 6.4 100% Below average
11758Massapequa 54,37510,555 36 6.0 94% Below average
11803Plainview 29,71321,821 24 5.9 92% Below average
11580Valley Stream 43,09211,427 28 5.7 90% Below average
11023Great Neck 9,6301,844 6 5.7 89% Below average
11709Bayville 6,744616 4 5.7 89% Below average
11783Seaford 21,1274,340 12 5.2 81% Below average
11552West Hempstead 25,1744,433 14 5.1 80% Below average
11756Levittown 42,6658,788 22 4.7 73% Below average
11510Baldwin 35,7014,368 16 4.2 66% Below average
11507Albertson 6,7361,750 3 3.9 62% Below average
11003Elmont 45,1746,119 19 3.9 62% Below average
11553Uniondale 27,87510,521 12 3.6 57% Below average
11581Valley Stream 22,81811,004 10 3.5 55% Below average
11096Inwood 10,4283,707 4 3.3 51% Below average
11565Malverne 9,009753 3 3.2 50% Below average
11002Floral Park —8 0–2 — — Not published
11020Great Neck 5,676704 0–2 — — Not published
11022Great Neck —26 0–2 — — Not published
11024Great Neck 9,155970 0–2 — — Not published
11042New Hyde Park 14125,823 0–2 — — Not published
11531Garden City —61 0–2 — — Not published
11547Glenwood Landing 706171 0–2 — — Not published
11549Hempstead 2,3593,099 0–2 — — Not published
11551Hempstead —8 0–2 — — Not published
11555Uniondale —449 0–2 — — Not published
11556Uniondale 03,287 0–2 — — Not published
11571Rockville Centre —35 0–2 — — Not published
11575Roosevelt 18,7051,973 0–2 — — Not published
11582Valley Stream —148 0–2 — — Not published
11598Woodmere 13,5993,661 0–2 — — Not published
11765Mill Neck 683312 0–2 — — Not published
11802Hicksville —168 0–2 — — Not published
11804Old Bethpage 4,8351,229 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Garden City

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Garden City retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Garden City retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Garden City retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Nassau County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 1,334 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.