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Hidalgo County, TX — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 31 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.70× the U.S. rate (between 0.70× and 0.73× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 13 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Hidalgo County restaurants — 70–73% of the U.S. rate

451 restaurants are counted in Hidalgo County — 4.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 70% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 14% between 2015 and 2023 (388 → 444). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 78503 (Mcallen), 78501 (Mcallen), 78504 (Mcallen) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 78573 (Mission), 78574 (Mission), 78542 (Edinburg).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 490 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Hidalgo County sits at 70% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 70% and 73% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 78503 and 78501; the lowest measured density is in 78573 and 78574.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
451–477
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (13 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
4.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.70×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
490
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
891,915
28 ZIPs with data
Workers
226,099
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
914,820
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+4.8%
+41,928 people
Net migration 2024
+3,117
international +4,679, domestic −1,562
Jobs located here
280,174
LODES 2022, +5.6% since 2019

Hidalgo County had an estimated 914,820 residents on July 1, 2024 — 4.8% more than in 2020 (+41,928). In the latest year it gained 12,377 people: births minus deaths +9,208, international migration +4,679, domestic migration −1,562. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

280,174 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.6% since 2019), and 305,085 employed residents lived there (+6.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
78542 Edinburg
+15.6%
78573 Mission
+15.4%
78541 Edinburg
+15.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
78579 Progreso
−65.1%
78596 Weslaco
−41.3%
78562 La Villa
−26.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
463
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$27.3M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$59K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 14% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Hidalgo County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

388
2015
406
2018
400
2020
422
2021
437
2022
444
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78503 Mcallen
194%
78501 Mcallen
185%
78504 Mcallen
141%
78539 Edinburg
123%
78596 Weslaco
109%
78572 Mission
92%
78577 Pharr
74%
78589 San Juan
61%
78543 Elsa
50%
78557 Hidalgo
39%
78599 Weslaco
30%
78541 Edinburg
26%
78516 Alamo
26%
78570 Mercedes
21%
78537 Donna
20%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78573 Mission
17%
78574 Mission
17%
78542 Edinburg
17%
78537 Donna
20%
78570 Mercedes
21%
78516 Alamo
26%
78541 Edinburg
26%
78599 Weslaco
30%
78557 Hidalgo
39%
78543 Elsa
50%
78589 San Juan
61%
78577 Pharr
74%
78572 Mission
92%
78596 Weslaco
109%
78539 Edinburg
123%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersRestaurantsIndex
78565Los Ebanos Destination 20226 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
78503Mcallen 22,62122,478 42 12.4 194% High density
78501Mcallen 58,93532,569 89 11.8 185% High density
78504Mcallen 63,09422,324 67 9.0 141% Above average
78539Edinburg 37,16832,496 42 7.9 123% Above average
78596Weslaco 39,51818,580 34 7.0 109% Above average
78572Mission 78,02424,466 53 5.9 92% Below average
78577Pharr 80,54024,219 44 4.7 74% Below average
78589San Juan 40,2316,731 17 3.9 61% Below average
78543Elsa 8,4001,968 3 3.2 50% Below average
78557Hidalgo 14,4983,175 4 2.5 39% Far below average
78599Weslaco 35,4542,666 7 1.9 30% Far below average
78541Edinburg 51,7104,389 9 1.7 26% Far below average
78516Alamo 34,3703,873 6 1.7 26% Far below average
78570Mercedes 34,3485,003 5 1.4 21% Far below average
78537Donna 51,4266,219 7 1.3 20% Far below average
78542Edinburg 89,4014,069 10 1.1 17% Far below average
78574Mission 62,4563,398 7 1.1 17% Far below average
78573Mission 44,8093,429 5 1.1 17% Far below average
78502Mcallen —753 0–2 — — Not published
78505Mcallen —627 0–2 — — Not published
78538Edcouch 11,982525 0–2 — — Not published
78540Edinburg 0309 0–2 — — Not published
78549Hargill 60936 0–2 — — Not published
78558La Blanca 72244 0–2 — — Not published
78560La Joya 4,635563 0–2 — — Not published
78562La Villa 3,211625 0–2 — — Not published
78563Linn 9227 0–2 — — Not published
78565Los Ebanos 20226 0–2 — — Not published
78576Penitas 15,4841,164 0–2 — — Not published
78579Progreso 2,039278 0–2 — — Not published
78595Sullivan City 6,118559 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Mcallen

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Mcallen retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Mcallen retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Mcallen retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Hidalgo County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 490 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.